Carolina's Secondary - The Legion of Bums

I'm writing this as the Carolina Panthers are down 21-0 at Green Bay, having saved it from becoming 28-0 on a pick-six by "virtue" of the intercepting DB being blatantly guilty of pass interference. 

Yes, our first first down of the game came because of a penalty and the defense still looks like it doesn't know which team is the "bad guys" - the guys in the OTHER uniforms or the guys in the SAME uniforms.



With the rapid demise of a once-great defense (last year and the first two games of this one), I have been giving their issues a LOT of thought the past month. Cam Newton and Kelvin Benjamin are the only two real bright spots for the offense along with Greg Olsen's continued steady if unspectacular playing, but the offense isn't helping the defense consistently. This is about the defense itself.

So what IS the issue here? What happened to the defense from last year?

In short, David Gettleman's "defensive backfield on-the-cheap" strategy has come back to bite him, and the entire team, right in the rumpus.

He and Rivera have been improving the front-seven during their few years recently in Charlotte, and have been successful after a couple of poorly-chosen DTs before Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short were picked in last year's draft.

But to be fair, Gettleman at least made a gesture towards the defensive backfield, using the 4th and 5th-round picks on DBs. 

Tre' Boston, a strong safety candidate from UNC, was a pick I never personally liked for reasons Roman Harper has been demonstrating consistently - I wasn't impressed with Boston's ability to tackle in space. 

He has been injured almost his entire pro career (this season) and hasn't been a factor. In his case, it's probably a GOOD thing.

That 5th-rounder, CB Bene' Benwikere (ben-WICK-uh-ree), has looked solid as a nickle corner. Fine.

Here are the biggest problems: SS Roman Harper, FS Thomas DeCoud, CB Antoine Cason, CB Melvin White, and CB Josh Norman.

We simply lack talent in the defensive backfield, and Gettleman's history of re-treading other teams' rejects isn't working. 

I think out of the entire group, Roman Harper is the biggest offender. I've been over and over his poor plays and his being out of position so I won't beat it to death here. Suffice it to say that he has been doing it since his arrival.

It would be okay if he were at least a good pass defender, and he was tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with many others coming into today's game with three. Two of those were off deflected passes that he got lucky on, but at least he caught them. Otherwise, he's slow...physically and, apparently, mentally as well.

Not only is he out of position too often, but at Green Bay in a simple Cover 2 (Tampa-two) defense, he was slow getting over to help out Antoine Cason against Jordy Nelson. Oh well - it isn't like Nelson is at or near the top in every meaningful receiving category, is it? 

When he did get to him, Nelson made him look like a lumbering defensive lineman completely out of his element. How in the world IS this defense EVER going to be any good when your starting "strong" safety has the speed of a tackle and the open-field tackling ability of a kicker?

Harper barely even laid a finger on Nelson, if at all, while allowing him to get right by him for a long touchdown.

On the front end of this so-called Cover 2 against Nelson? Antoine Cason. He dove lazily at Nelson's feet on the play I just mentioned that Harper couldn't clean up in part due to the fact that HE lazily made HIS way over to Nelson.

Jordy made them both pay.

As the team gets behind now 28-0, I'm thinking of Robert Lester and his being waived...turning my attention to Thomas DeCoud.

DeCoud isn't quite as bad as Harper in pass coverage but he seems to have gotten worse after the first couple of games as well. Although I have seen him make some nice form-tackles in the open field since then, I've seen him miss his share of tackles as well. 

If Robert Lester was SO much worse than DeCoud, apparently Lester doesn't even belong in the NFL because DeCoud doesn't look like he does these days, either.

Roman Harper and Thomas DeCoud are "athletes" that even our defense-starved division competitors didn't want. Harper was waived by the Saints and DeCoud by the Falcons.

The rest of our CB group, aside from Benwikere, has been playing as if they don't belong, either. Truly, they were all either low-priced re-treads from other teams or undrafted rookies the Panthers picked up over the past few years. 

In Josh Norman's case, a late-round pick. Oh, I almost forgot Charles Godfrey...the most overpaid 3rd-string safety in the NFL!

It's quite normal to use ONE late-rounder or rookie UFA in your rotation in the defensive backfield, but with today's pass-happy NFL, it stands to reason you want some guys with TALENT back there to at least help be that last-ditch effort to stop a long play.

It looks to me like this lack of draft talent is rearing its ugly head and there's not a single thing, short of making a mid-season trade before a rapidly-approaching deadline, Gettleman OR Rivera can do this year to fix it.

But the defensive malaise runs deeper than "just" the least-talented defensive backfield in the NFL...whom I officially dub "The Legion of Bums."

With Greg Hardy's absence - rightly or wrongly handled - the defensive line isn't generating pressure like it did last season. They aren't holding their ground well against the run, either.

If our prized possession on defense, third-year All-Pro MLB Luke Kuechly, can't be free to make tackles, fellow LB Thomas Davis has to take up the slack. He has been unable to do so, having missed HIS share of tackles as well. I'm not "dogging" TD here, but both he and Luke aren't playing up to what we're used to seeing from our dynamic duo.

Again - it goes back to the line not generating pressure as a 4-man rush. The results are that the linebackers often have to shed blockers or make their way through traffic to make the stop. Kuechly leads the NFL in tackles again this year as much due to the fact he's on the FIELD so much as anything else.

In fact, nobody - not one single player - is playing up to the level we saw last season. The only constant missing is Greg Hardy, and I don't think a single player would turn the second-best defense last year into the second-worst one this year. We don't have a new system or new defensive coordinator, either.

I think Hardy's absence makes one of the NFL's best defensive lines a bit more mundane for sure. You can't be missing a guy who makes a sack per game and all that goes with that and NOT have it make a difference, but this is way too much.

What we're seeing is the effects of having to not only use castoffs and re-treads from other teams, but multiple years' worth of doing so. When you roll over your entire secondary from year to year, there's no stability to build upon. 

The result? Missed assignments. Missed tackles. Letting things get out of hand and not playing with urgency are but two negative results of poor play. It all feeds off each other and has a snowball effect, each one amplifying the others.

Without even getting much into the deep issues we have at the offensive tackle position, next year's draft should include one of those as a high pick. The rest should be spent on the secondary and yet another pass-rushing DE but can hold up against the run as well, with thoughts of replacing an aging Charles Johnson. CJ hasn't been stout against the run himself - he never has been known as a great run defender but not a bad one either - and with his salary, he'd need a huge pay cut to stay past his current deal.

Sorry folks, but I still see a LOT of rebuilding needed...this time, starting with the back end of the defense.

If you can't put consistent pressure on the QB, you'll at least need guys who can somewhat cover receivers and fill holes against the run.

Being cheap and doling out revolving-door 1-year deals is officially a failure.

Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye

Injuries Mount as Panthers Prowl Lambeau Field This Week

Come on, fans....admit it. This season has been an insane one for the Carolina Panthers thus far.

Nobody would have thought that it would be the offense carrying a team with a struggling defense?




Were we not supposed to have a group of the "league's sorriest wide receivers?"

Those two bookend offensive tackles that weren't even drafted and couldn't pass-block?

Cam Newton was unusually well-protected last week, but what most people don't know is that the Cincinnati defense is statistically pretty bad, too. They actually are 28th in yards allowed while that of the Panthers is 26th.

Some strange things are going this season no matter how you slice it. 

It's an interesting backdrop to think about as the team heads north to play in Titletown. I have always respected the Packers organizational skill over their history as well as their legendary coach, Vince Lombardi. Now the Panthers have to play in the shadow of history as well as the bright light of the day in a hostile stadium again. 

With two teams noted for offense and scoring points lately after sluggish starts, neither team can call their defense a strength. The Packers are 19th in total yards allowed. 

It all makes the injury situation that much more concerning for Carolina. You're all probably aware of the problem with injuries to our running back corps so I looked at who has been held out of practice this week. The list is rather long:

Roman Harper, Kelvin Benjamin, Fozzy Whittaker, Bene' Benwikere, Thomas Davis, Amini Silatolu, Dwan Edwards, DeAngelo Williams, Greg Olsen and Chase Blackburn were all held out of practice. 

The good news is that Jonathan Stewart participated fully. 

While some of those not practicing can get away with it as veterans, four are new to the team this year and three of them are rookies. They especially need their reps.

Many of these guys will probably play but a key player may not be. Kelvin Benjamin is being treated for a concussion. There are entire articles I could write about that situation, being that he was obviously shaken up early in last week's game but was allowed to return. That bears investigating. 

If Benjamin can't go this weekend, the offense will be at a serious disadvantage. He has proven himself a worthy target despite having recent issues with dropping passes. He still makes more than his share of our big plays in the passing game along with Olsen with Avant making an occasional clutch catch.

Without The Kelvinator, we may be right back to using Cam Newton as the true dual-threat quarterback and competitor that he truly is. Last week, he looked more like his old young self so to speak, and just in time it looks like.

Having Stewart back to shoulder a nice bit of the load will be nice, but Cam is probably going to be off and running another double-digit number of times. With little depth at the RB position, look for more trips or "bunch" type sets with Olsen, Avant, and Cotchery perhaps likely.

Now if only our pass rush can wake up and get after AR-12 early, we could have a chance. I'm just tired of seeing us giving up all these big plays. Last week, we gave Giovanni Bernard an 89-yard TD run and his first 100-yard rushing game ever. Yep, incredible but true.

The road through Wisconsin doesn't get any easier with Eddie Lacy's presence either. Aaron Rodgers isn't lacking for talented targets and our secondary has been atrocious. At least the rush defense has been more atrocious. 

In order to win, it looks like Cam is going to have to pull off another do-it-all performance, or close to it. Stewart can finally step back in this week, it looks like. Other than that, There's a lot of banged-up talent on the list whether they play or not.

All that aside, the Panthers stand a fair chance of pulling this one off. I have seen stranger things happen, so hang on until game day and we'll have a lot clearer picture.

Above all, #KeepPonding 

Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye

The Carolina Panthers Kiss their Bengal Tigers Sisters at 37

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It's games like yesterday's Panthers-Bengals game that make me happy I don't have any siblings, especially not a sister.

The thought of having one AND kissing her isn't something that (thankfully) enters my mind much - only on occasions like this.

Sure, in college my namesake and then-Auburn Head Coach, Pat Dye, was rather fond of them. So much so, in fact, a ticked-off Syracuse fan base sent him a box of gaudy-patterned ones after he kicked a short FG to tie a bowl game matchup "back in the day."

To our credit, the Auburn fan base sent THEIR head coach a box of fresh green grapes (sour, of course) in return. The ties actually became a big story on the "loveliest village on the plain," and the coach signed them all, charged fans $50 apiece for them, and donated the proceeds to charity.

Well, that was the GOOD "tie." The only "good" tie I think I've ever seen, having been unable to stop the Orangemen's running game. The mascot dates things.

As far as yesterday's 37-37 tie, the only "good" part was when Bengals kicker Mike Nugent missed a chip-shot FG as time ran out in overtime to keep both teams notching up one in the "T" column.

Ugh. The "T" column. It's a crime that thing even exists. So much for "sudden death overtime," eh? 

The day did not go well for the Panthers. After a dominating opening drive, the team was out of sorts in all three phases of the game, and the propensity of a once-mighty now-fallen defense for giving up not big plays but MASSIVELY big plays on a consistent basis is deeply troubling.

Equally as baffling was Ron Rivera's sudden shift back to "playing not to lose" was evident. With a 4th and short, he kicked the field goal to re-tie the game in overtime after Cincy had booted a FG with their opening possession. Cam had repeatedly shredded the left side of the defense with his runs and was looking like his old, healthy self again. It wasn't like things looked like the Bengals could stop a patented Newton QB sneak, that's for sure. 

After Le'Veon Bell torched us in week three, including an 85-yard run, Bengals RB Giovanni Bernard burned us even worse with an 89-yard TD run.

Later, Adam "Pac-Man" Jones torched the special teams unit for a 97-yard kickoff return down to our 3 yard line.

Now, I've been down on the defense, but you can't blame them for giving up 6 points when the opponent's offense only has to get three yards for it. The special teams let us down there, but the defense certainly gave up plenty of long gainers as well, and I'm trying to figure out why.

What has changed since last season's dominating performance...and forcing other teams to actually work the field instead of shrugging and saying "okay, we'll just spot you guys 6. I'm gonna go get a Gatorade."

We don't have Greg Hardy, the team's premiere pass-rusher, but his absence alone doesn't begin to explain one of the worst (if not THE worst) defensive drop-offs from one season to the next in NFL history. It's that bad so far.

Especially when we're so vulnerable against the run now, it makes no sense. I'll have to go look at the film play by play and frame by frame in some cases to know for sure, but the one thing I did see and could identify as an issue was one that has been going on since that Pittsburgh loss.

That issue is Roman Harper. While he's a physical player, I have seen him out of position on most of those big gainers the defense has given up. He's certainly not the ONLY problem, but his continued lack of awareness is shocking for someone who has been around the NFL for as long as he has been. A lot of people seem down on Thomas DeCoud as well, but he seems to be far more consistent than does Harper. When he's right, Harper tends to make flashier plays, but when he's wrong it costs us points.

And he has been wrong a lot recently, it seems!

It really is becoming a head-scratcher as to why this defense is so bad, but being in the wrong spot is a common thing that leads to big plays in general. Carolina certainly has given up more than their share, and that's what is getting so frustrating.

Why is it that people can't be where they're supposed to be? 

I can only think of coaching, coachability, or a combination of the two. Being out of position is 100% mental. The defense can't be depended upon to stop anyone at this point, having given up 37+ points in three of the last four weeks.

As far as the actual game went, I think the consensus is that it WAS an ugly game. My friend, the Professor here on this site had said so. Nobody is happy with a tie. In fact, both kickers missed short field goals to have that tie. We were lucky to not have left town with a big ole "L."

Since the Panthers head to Lambeau this coming weekend, the troubles on defense look to just get worse and more exposed than ever. Aaron Rodgers is on a roll and the Pack will be playing at home. Carolina goes up there with a defense hanging in rags and with Cam being the only consistent player on the entire team. Anyone thinking Cam is the problem needs their head examined.

Now's the time for the team to face reality and pick a direction to go. They'll fight through whatever comes their way, but I think the record itself speaks to how things have been going lately.

3-2-1.....

Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye

Beautiful or Ugly, Carolina's Victory Over Chicago is Sweet

Yesterday after the game was over and the Carolina Panthers defeated Ron Rivera's old stomping grounds, the Chicago Bears, I had posted to social media something along the lines of "That was about as ugly a win as I've seen, but they all count the same in the end."


Nobody argued about the second half of that statement; they had plenty of ammo to throw my way at the first part.

While many agreed with my assessment, a vociferous and large minority of people took issue with it to the point of saying things like "you're not a TRUE fan" or similar comments while others just went to downright inappropriateness with name-calling.

Uh, this is the NFL, supposed to be fun. This is NOT politics, so get a freakin' grip, people!

Why was it not a "beautiful" or "pretty" win? 

In my mind, lots of reasons. For one, we turned the ball over three times and played sloppy football, allowing those 3 turnovers to become 21 Bears points. 

That ain't pretty!

Kelvin Benjamin had multiple dropped passes as well, including coughing up a fumble for one of those three turnovers.

That ain't pretty!

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The Panthers, a supposedly power-running team playing against one of the weaker defensive units in the NFL, averaged a paltry 3.3 yards per carry over the entire game.

That ain't pretty!

Certainly, on that last part, there were extenuating circumstances, but I'm talking about the product on the field on Sunday, October 5th, 2014 at Bank of America Stadium. Under the circumstances, 3.3 YPC isn't horrible but it did help to show our deficiencies in the offensive line.

When I'm critical, it's usually for a reason. Go back and check www.carolinacatchronicles.com if you wish and look for whatever I've said about the offensive tackles.

For the learning impaired, I'll say it for an nth + 1 time....we desperately need two new offensive tackles!

That ain't pretty!

It also wasn't in the cards in the draft and Dave Gettleman tried to gloss it over saying "sometimes the answer is right there on your roster."

However, what he didn't say was "...and sometimes it's NOT!"

I think by now we ALL know the answer to that one. It's not.

Do I blame Byron Bell and Nate Chandler for continued sub-par play? Nope. Not at all. In fact, I respect them as much as I respect anyone on the team, period.

Why's that you ask?

Because they're both playing out of position, that's why. They're asked to do more than what they're really capable of doing. 

When a player enters the NFL and doesn't get drafted, it's usually for a good reason. Undrafted players rarely become stars in the NFL, and just off the top of my head I think, for instance, that ex-Denver Bronco Rod Smith is the #1 undrafted wide receiver in NFL history in terms of catches, yards, and TDs, but he's probably not going to be on anyone's top-ten or top-twenty list of all-time greats at the position. I think Wes Welker just broke the receptions record in the "undrafted" category this weekend, but the point remains.

Now that the stage is set, keep in mind that we don't have a single offensive tackle taken in any draft!

That ain't pretty!

And it shows. I can't blame Byron Bell for putting in hard work, being an upstanding guy, and doing what the coaches tell him to do to the best of his ability. He simply doesn't have the lateral agility required to defeat today's athletic pass-rushers.

Nate Chandler went undrafted as a defensive tackle, was switched to offensive tackle last season, and now is the starter on the right side.

I knew for a fact that we were in trouble at both positions when talk began after the draft of moving Bell from the right side to being Cam Newton's blind-side bodyguard. The fact that some people are blaming CAM and calling for Derek Anderson to start are not so informed, I think.

Under a lot of negative circumstances - ankle and rib injuries, shaky play across the entire offensive line, and an entirely new crop of wide receivers this year, Cam is doing better than pretty much anyone could be thought of doing when the season began.

The Panthers didn't play well in the first half against Chicago, but the team hung in there, played all four quarters, and came out victorious. You learn more through adversity than you do through success, and that's why Super Bowl-winning teams have almost always faced some sort of adversity before they won The Big Game. 

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Seattle? They had to hunt a short QB in the draft. Baltimore? They had to get hot late in the season just to make the playoffs at 10-6. The year before that, the New York Giants won the Super Bowl with a 9-7 regular season record, so there's always some "ugliness" teams have to go through in order to win the Super Bowl, folks.

Even the undefeated 1972 Miami Dolphins had adversity. First of all, they lost their starting QB, Bob Griese, for most of the year to a broken leg. The previous season, they lost the Super Bowl and remain the only team in NFL history NOT to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Look it up.

The point of all this is to show with historical data that arguing over something like whether or not any given win is "pretty" or not is just lame. The manner in which the Panthers won yesterday wasn't perfect, but with guidance and rational thinking, they'll learn from the mistakes they did make, become a better team for it, and be that much better off in the long run. And when the difference in a game could be said to be a punt that was interfered with which the return man picked up after the fact and returned for a touchdown?

That ain't pretty!

It's a heads-up play, however, and one I'll take all day. It isn't something fans should count on each week - especially since it happened to be Carolina's first punt return TD in 11 years!

With 31 other teams in the NFL looking to improve every week, the Carolina Panthers have coaches and players that are well aware that if you're not getting better, you're getting worse. Ron Rivera himself said that one of the most disappointing things about the game defensively was that a couple of Chicago's big plays came as a result of missed tackles. That is something that needs to be worked on and is correctable, according to the Head Coach. He spoke about the "need for being sound in our run gaps." Offensively, he said they have to block better. 

Does this mean Ron Rivera isn't a "true Panthers fan?"

COME on, fans! It counts in the "W" column at the end of the year, and that's really all that matters. 

THAT is BEAUTIFUL!

Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye 

Carolina Plays Pivotal Game Against Chicago Today

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Too many times, announcers especially like to prop up the game they're calling by saying it's a "must-win game." The problem is, there ARE no "must-win games" in week TWO.
This is week five, however, and with the Panthers having given up 30+ points in consecutive losses, the third time is the charm as the saying goes.

Chicago has a potent offense both on the ground with Matt Forte and in the air with four very good skill players: QB Jay Cutler, WR Brandon Marshall, WR Alshon Jeffery, and TE Martellus Bennett.

Forte's forte - such as it is - is catching passes out of the backfield. Yes, he has 4.4 speed and when he gets the ball in space, he can be a very explosive player. With the Bears' offense, it's a case of picking your poison.

With the Panthers having vomited up 37 to a Pittsburgh offense grinding it out and 38 to a potent air attack in Baltimore, the Panthers need to get their act together this week. If you can't stop the run OR the pass, what are you doing out there?

What's particularly baffling is where they DID go. As we all know, the Panthers' defense entered the season as the strong suit of the team, finishing a close second to Seattle in most meaningful defensive categories last season and returned the strength of that part of the squad in the front seven.

We also know of Greg Hardy's legal and league issues, but I'm not so sure missing one guy turns a defense that gives up 12 points per game to one giving up 37.5 points per game. The issues are far more systemic than not having one of your top players - not even your top pass rusher.

Even Ron Rivera said he had counted fourteen different plays against Baltimore where at least two defenders were out of position....not to mention plays where "only" one was.

So what's the explanation for this "regression?"

That's a baffling question because the answers aren't very obvious at first glance. The team has the same defensive coordinator, Sean McDermott, and as I've said, basically the same front seven (Hardy being the exception).

Since the safeties and some of the corners are new to the team this season, the defensive backfield is the obvious culprit, but they aren't entirely to blame, either. MLB Luke Kuechly isn't playing up to the level he had last season when he was named NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Even HE has been caught out of position on some long gains, including the 81-yarder that Le'Veon Bell ripped off on us two weeks ago.

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So why would Kuechly regress? I'm not so sure that "regression" is the right term for him. With the defensive backfield being obviously confused in assignments at times, he may feel he has to do even more than he should, and therein lies the rub: when you "do too much," you become more aggressive and tend to commit yourself too early in an "all or nothing " mentality....in other words, he may be thinking "If I don't make the play, nobody will."

The results are on film. He'd be better served, like the rest of the defense, to play what I call "robotic" football. That's where you don't care what your teammates are doing and only care about what YOU can do. Coach says, player does. Robotic.

This is not to say you don't play with passion - the entire team does that. I'm not questioning their desire or heart or work ethic. I'm questioning their focus and grasp of the system - at least the safeties for now - and if this is causing a ripple effect of sorts. With Roman Harper having been out of position as much or more than anyone I've seen on the defense, perhaps others feel like they have to "cover" for him so to speak, or "hide" him by trying to do a little bit more....and that's the trap the defense may be falling into.

It isn't a personnel issue. It isn't a faulty scheme. It isn't a bad coordinator.

That narrows things down considerably. What it comes down to is a matter of playing disciplined, smart defense.

People used to talk about Hall of Fame linebacker Dick Butkus, saying "Not only did he not want you to gain a yard, he didn't want you to gain an inch!"

In the run-happy days of the 1950's and 60's, that style of play often worked. Aggressive, stop the run at all costs football.

That approach simply doesn't work in an NFL when a QB can take a snap, a 3-step drop, and have the ball out of his hands in less than two seconds. At least, it won't consistently work unless you're playing against this year's version of the New England Patriots. I'm convinced it's because I drafted Tom Brady for my fantasy league, but that's an entirely different article.

I think the team would be better served to go back and look at last year's game film and this year's game film, see what the differences are, correct them, and go back to being a top-five defense again. I'm sure McDermott has been going through that very process and has been under a lot of heat from Rivera these last couple of weeks.

Even the best defensive teams have bad nights for whatever reason. Take, for instance, the 1985 Chicago Bears....regarded by many as the best single-season defense of all time.

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Yes, that's Ron above and his team lost only a single game, but in the process they looked completely beatable. I remember it because I saw it live. They played against Dan Marino on Monday Night Football in the Orange Bowl and would send 8 guys after Dan.

One problem: Marino got rid of the ball more quickly than anyone ever had in NFL history - before or since. He'd take that three-step drop and actually throw fairly long passes - he'd just loft it up, let the single-covered receiver run under it, and "pull the string" on the pass, dropping it out in front of him perfectly. They scored at least two TDs using this method and won the game....by 14 points. And it was never even that close.

However, the Panthers aren't exposing their secondary by blitzing, they're exposing it by not generating the pass rush from the D-line they used to last season. Yes, Hardy's absence doesn't help, but Charles Johnson hasn't had a good year thus far either. DE Wes Horton, starting for Hardy, hasn't had a single sack in 2014. Mario Addison is a good pass-rusher as a reserve and could well start in Horton's place perhaps, since not only does Horton not have a sack, he doesn't even have an unassisted tackle.

Gettleman's selection of Missouri DE Kony Ealy is looking better all the time, but he still needs time to grow into the position.

So, we've got a defensive backfield low on talent, rookie Ben "The Fed Chief" Benwikere notwithstanding, and many of them are first-year Panthers. The D-line isn't having the season they had last year as a whole, and Thomas Davis didn't even play against Baltimore.

I see issues at every level of the defense. Perhaps the sum of the "missing" parts is greater than the whole, but every team has injuries or key cogs gone for some time. Baltimore beat us even with the Ray Rice distraction, which is far greater than Hardy's in the public eye, for instance.

The pivotal part of today's ball game is indeed the defensive unit. If they can correct the issues they're facing and play more solid football, Carolina has enough offense, assuming they don't have to press my grandmother into service at running back, to put up enough points to win the game at home despite..."average" offensive tackles, to be kind.

If the defense continues its confused play, even the New York Jets could put up a score with a 3-handle on us....and that won't help us win against ANYONE.

A third consecutive poor showing by Carolina's defense would seem to indicate deeper systemic problems than I think may exist at this point and would be a symptom of problems that may take more time to fix than the Panthers have time to limit the numbers in the loss column.

Lastly, nobody seems to want to win the NFC South so far. Nobody is above .500. Even if the Panthers "back into" a division crown at, say, 9-7 or 10-6, from what I see, we'll have a very quick exit to the playoffs....just like last year.

And last year, we had a great defense!

Rivera & Co. need to get that bilge pump running and fast.....the ship is riding lower and lower in the water. It can still be saved, but it means focusing on doubling down on the hard work.

follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye

What's Wrong with the Carolina Panthers?

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We've seen the Carolina Panthers get off to a good 0-2 start, but ole Riverboat Ron had patented slow starts long ago, and let's face it. This time last year, we were 1-3, so things aren't quite so bad as they may seem in some ways.
 
What's going well? Right now, that's a short answer-type question. Cam Newton, despite being banged up and hobbled with a lingering ankle issue, has been nothing short of spectacular considering everything going on.

He hasn't been healthy and he's not getting protected by his offensive line. He has still managed to improve on his play from last year, and his being hobbled could be a blessing in disguise as it will force him to learn to be a better pocket passer.

Then there's rookie phenom Kelvin Benjamin, whom we're all familiar with and hopefully as high on as I am. 

I'll be honest....I always am in my writing, but specifically here. I didn't like the pick when it was made for two reasons: Kelvin was a redshirt sophomore coming out of FSU and hence I figured he'd take a year or two to develop his potential. 

What I didn't realize is the vast potential he apparently has. If he's only going to get better in the rest of the season and next, the sky really is the limit for this kid. 

The other reason I didn't like his selection was his propensity to drop easy passes in college. 

It looks like receivers' coach Ricky Proehl has coached a lot of that out of him. Dropped passes are almost always an issue of focusing. The NFL is so bang-bang that a split-second makes a difference, and I can see how tempting it is when an open receiver wants to take a peek upfield as the ball arrives for a catch. You HAVE to watch the ball into your hands, THEN turn and look - not the other way around, or passes get dropped.

All WRs will have a drop here or there; that's just how it is. Kelvin hasn't seemed to drop any more than any other given receiver and has actually emerged as the team's #1 receiver. That's frankly unheard of in the NFL these days.

Thankfully, TE Greg Olsen has been the steady hand on offense and made some very nice plays the first month. Against Baltimore last week, he showed he still has a nice burst on that catch he made at the 15 or so and turned up the sideline to run in for a score, so that was encouraging.

The thing is, if we could get healthy on offense, especially with the running backs, the Panthers ARE built to be a power running team that plays tough defense. Yes, the D hasn't played well at all the last two weeks, but the talent is there and they've shown their capabilities so hopefully it's something that can be fixed. If it can be, a healthy offense could be more potent than last year's but the lack of pass-blocking talent at the tackle position has to be considered when forming their game plans. Adjustments need to be made, but I think things can be turned around....but we don't have the luxury of much time.

Now for the bad. This is a long list, I'm afraid.

Number one, the offensive line really IS offensive, and the warnings I issued before the season started (and got creamed by fans for pointing out) are splayed wide open. I said the o-line is like a tiny college basketball team - they start a center and four guards.

I stick to that statement. I knew the line was in trouble when Dave Gettleman tried to sell all us fans a horrible bill of goods about the situation at tackle when Rivera had to move Byron Bell from the right side to the left, while Gettleman said "Sometimes the answer is right there on your roster."

As I've also said before, as far as that statement goes, it's true enough. Where the lie starts is one of omission - what he didn't say: "and sometimes the answer is NOT on your roster." 

That is very much the case in Charlotte.

To his credit, Gettleman didn't reach for a tackle with the top pick or with ANY pick for that matter. I saw the "top-tier" offensive tackles were gone, and even at the bottom of the first round, you don't draft a second-tier guy. You find a top-tier guy at a position of need and draft him, or simply draft the "best player available" which Gettleman subscribes to, and fully explains the Kony Ealy pick in the second round.

At any rate, the OT position wasn't addressed at all when Jordan Gross retired, and we're paying for it now. My nickname for Byron Bell for some time now has been "the Turnstile." Byron "The Turnstile" Bell has earned that nickname by often letting pass rushers get by him without him hardly even touching them. 

You see, there's a difference between tackles and guards in the NFL. Guards, for lack of a better descriptor right now, are kinda "square" guys. Byron Bell is built like a typical NFL tackle. He's got SOME height at 6' 4", but he's 340+ pounds. 

That's a guard.

Usually, offensive tackles are a bit taller and leaner than Bell is. It's not uncommon to have a left tackle that's 6'5" to 6'7" and hits the scales at about 310-315 pounds....taller and leaner than Bell.

They're almost always guys with much quicker feet than those of Bell, or RT Nate Chandler for that matter.

Neither is a starting-quality offensive tackle. Both went undrafted out of college, and Chandler started his NFL career as a defensive tackle. So we have Bell playing WAY out of position and Chandler just really learning the right tackle position. 

And we're well into the season. Ouch.

Since the tackle position went completely un-addressed, the only way anything can be done about it this season is via a trade with another team. Perhaps Greg Hardy could be bundled with a middle-round pick for a good tackle, but Hardy's trade stock is at an all-time low at the moment because of his own legal issues connected to the Ray Rice domestic violence issue. We don't even know if Hardy will ever play another NFL down, AND he's playing under the franchise tag. I don't see another team clamoring for his $11 million+ salary this season and having to try to sign him after the season is over, nor do I see him contributing much this year. 

The other two ways to address it are via free agency next season and then the draft in the spring. To fix this, Gettleman likely would have to pick up a decent guy in free agency as well as adding a rookie to the roster in the draft.

What about the defense?

The defense has looked atrocious in both losses. Granted, Le'Veon Bell may be a top-five RB in the NFL these days, but teammate Legarrette Blount is not. Both hit us up for over 100 yards, and last week in the Blood and Guts Bowl, our old WR reject, Steve Smith, completely torched us for well over 100 yards and 2 TDs....even if that first "tip drill" TD made me think I was watching last season's Auburn/Georgia game.

Luke Kuechly isn't playing like the Defensive Player of the Year he was last year and has already played himself OUT of ANY consideration to repeat that honor this year. I saw too many players out of position on any given play as well.

Part of this is the "rent-a-defensive back" strategy we've seen from Gettleman the past two seasons. We're taking on rejects from divisional defenses that weren't any good at the time they were let go....Thomas DeCoud from Atlanta and Roman Harper from New Orleans, to be precise. While DeCoud has played fairly consistently (if unspectacular in doing so), Harper has been in the wrong place way too much.

The defensive line isn't putting pressure on the opponent like it has in the past, either. This isn't just because of no Greg Hardy; one thing the team does have is depth at the DE spot. It's NOBODY is playing up to last year's bar, which I acknowledge was set quite high, but the entire front-seven returned from last year's second-ranked unit, save Hardy and his situation.

Without getting deeper into the specifics as this post is already quite lengthy, the line isn't pressuring the QB or disrupting the backfield. The secondary isn't covering consistently well and is playing out of position on a lot of running plays. The linebackers are the same way...even Kuechly hit the wrong hole on that long gain by Le'Veon Bell the previous week.

Harper was WAY out of position against Tampa Bay when their fullback went 54 yards on a quick-opener running play. The list goes on and on. And on. And on. I haven't even mentioned our entire backfield is injured, either.

In fact, as per The Charlotte Observer, Ron Rivera said he counted 14 plays against the Ravens where at least two defenders were out of position. Apparently the vaunted front-seven isn't immune to falling back to Earth as well.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2014/09/29/5209078/carolina-panthers-coach-ron-rivera.html#storylink=cpy

Defensive Coordinator Sean McDermott needs to come up with some fixes and fast. The team is in the bottom-five in stopping 3rd down conversions and that was a strength last year. You name it, we're worse in that defensive category than last year. WAY worse.

But why is all this happening? The offensive woes could be explained with personnel issues and with injuries to the backfield including Cam. As well as Cam's playing under bad circumstances, just think how electrifying the 2013 version would be, and he continues to get punished as Ron Rivera took him out of the game two consecutive weeks to "protect" him. That's never a good thing.

It's the defense that makes me wonder. Yes, the secondary is largely made up of 1-year rentals but so was last year's. No corners seem to want to step forward yet to claim the #1 spot, but rookie Bene Benwikere (whom I call "The Fed Chief" and Al Michaels referred to him the same way on Sunday Night Football) could work himself up that ladder as he's the most talented and instinctive CB we have, and has locked down the nickel spot for now.

It still doesn't explain why Kuechly has seemingly regressed somewhat as his own instincts have seemed to fail him on a number of occasions this year, but he's not the only person not playing up to par. 

In fact, on defense, I can't think of anyone that IS!

Hang in there, gang. Looks like it could be a long year unless the defense can begin keeping us in games. We have the talent, but can the coaches pull things together?

All we can do is watch, root for the team, and time will tell on that one.

Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye

Pittsburgh Exposes Carolina's Weaknesses in 37-19 Rout

#453925358 / gettyimages.com

With a nice 2-0 start to the season and a team that hadn't really been tested yet, Ron Rivera took his Carolina Panthers into Bank of America stadium last night to face the Pittsburgh Steelers. When he and the team were done, they began playing the game.


Yes, Carolina never had momentum on either side of the ball and never did "feel" like they were ever really in the game - even at the beginning. In the first quarter especially, it was tangible.

Not only was Carolina being out-played with a 3-0 lead, but you could tell the Steelers were "testing the waters" with a VERY GOOD offensive game plan. They kept moving the ball but were unable to get the ball in the endzone and settled for field goals before their #1 WR, Antonio Brown, caught a TD pass eerily reminiscent of Santonio Holmes' Super Bowl-winning catch against Arizona a few years ago.

The Steelers offense just completely shredded the Panthers' "vaunted" front-seven on the ground. We're talking Gash City, USA with not one....noooOooo....but TWO Steelers RBs gaining well over 100 yards. 

Bell had 147 yards on 21 carries while LeGarrette Blount had 118 yards on only ten totes. Bell's longest carry went for 81 yards while Blount's longest was 50. 

Yeah, I know....

Le'Veon Bell, whom we're reminded by the announcers every time he touches the ball, had lost 20 pounds in the off-season and is lighter and quicker.

The Steeler running game plan was perfect against our aggressive, run-stuffing defense. Instead of trying the quick-hitting plays, such as the one Tampa Bay's fullback gashed us on for 54 yards on opening day, they displayed the complete opposite approach...and it worked. All night long.

They were running slow-developing plays often with multiple pulling offensive linemen that the defense never really could solve all night. Bell is a particularly "patient" running back (something one doesn't see much of these days) who plays very intelligently as he waits for his blocks to develop before committing to a hole.

WR Antonio Brown was targeted ten times. He had ten receptions.

Folks, this is more of an issue for the defense than we think. Many of you are thinking "ah, just wasn't our night" and perhaps that's the case, but it gave the other 30 NFL teams a blueprint on how to beat us. Slow-developing plays often cause defenders to commit themselves as well, isolating them in the process, and leaving the ball carrier with fewer people to defeat for a long gain. Without getting any penetration to disrupt things, this approach often works well.

Sometimes, as we saw last night, they're left with zero people to defeat. That's not good.

Bell had an 81-yard run from the shadow of their goalpost (just like the Tampa Bay fullback run and I can't think of the guy's name) where two good holes in the D-line were open. MLB Luke Kuechly picked one, Bell the other, and suddenly we were all at the Kentucky Derby....

The pass defense was equally atrocious. We couldn't put pressure on Big Ben all night and any decent QB is gonna kill you if he's not pressured, hit, or rattled at least. Not only that, but Ben's accuracy was Brady-like last night. He was really on top of his game while his counterpart, Cam Newton, struggled the entire night.

First, Cam wasn't "on" like Ben, but he's still healing from ankle and rib issues. That much I get. But once again, I am compelled to point out our lack of talent at the offensive tackle positions.

In the preseason game, Jarvis Jones was beating LT Byron Bell like he wasn't there. The same thing played out last night. Nate Chandler couldn't handle Brett Keisel coming off the edge on his side, either, and this is exactly what I've been warning the "homers" about - and a large part of why I picked Carolina to finish 9-7 this season.

I hope I'm wrong, I really do. But this is the easy part of the schedule!

Carolina finally began to get the running game started in the third quarter but was too little too late. The defense couldn't stop Pittsburgh all night long, and that's certainly reflected in the score. That 37-19 game? It wasn't as close as the score might indicate. Seriously, it was that bad.

I saw Bell just look totally sophomoric out there at left tackle on more plays than I care to repeat, and once again, his counterpart on the right side didn't fare much better. I'm 100% convinced it's because both starting tackles are too big and too slow to handle a good speed-rusher....and even Trai Turner was completely flattened by a bull-rush later in the game.

I mean, lying on your rear end, footprints on your chest flattened. THAT was unexpected, given what I'd heard and largely seen from Turner so far, but this IS the NFL and anyone can get used on any play, so I can chalk that one up to the learning curve. It's the tackles that I don't see getting any better and continuing to be the problem.

Just recently I penned a piece called "Armchair GM: What Should Gettleman do in 2015 Draft?" and I suggest you read it. I'm not trying to toot my own horn here, but that article contains a lot more detail about what we need and why we need it. The tackle position as well as the secondary is looked at there and I won't repeat much of what it says here other than to say last night's game really did a neon-sign job at the deficiencies on the team.

Keep your chins up, fellow Panthers fans, several things had to come together for the team to look that bad last night, and they ALL came together. IN spades.

As I tweeted last night, remember - the NFL hasn't seen a perfect season in 42 years and running - so we've got a single loss now. It's not something the team can't recover from and will most certainly be something the coaches are going to remind them all of ALL SEASON LONG. It'll keep players' heads and egos from getting too fat - they've been beaten and beaten badly, AND at home - and there's just no getting around that. It'll take anyone down a few notches and perhaps - hopefully - serve to re-focus the team from any possible distractions (like the Greg Hardy deal) and be a shameful reminder that they aren't "all that."

Even the Seahawks laid an egg the previous week, so nobody is immune, but the manner in which the Panthers lost simply pointed to the obvious weaknesses we ALL knew we had offensively.

Defensively, I attribute the horrid performance largely to a brilliant offensive game plan by Pittsburgh and one done with near-flawless execution on their part.

Did Kuechly look human last night? Oh, he looked like an average LB last night rather than SuperLuke. Nobody on either side of the ball had a particularly good game and many had very poor performances and not "just" the offensive line.

The "special teams" even looked like they came in on the short bus, fumbling a punt and instead of falling on the ball inside their own five, Philly Brown and - gulp - Josh Norman couldn't find the handle on the football while trying to pick it up. Touchdown, Pittsburgh. The good part is that Brad Nortman has the "pin the punt inside the ten" down to a science and showed it again on a couple of kicks last night.

One bright spot last night was once again WR Kelvin Benjamin. This guy really IS for real and continued to make great plays while he could and had 8 receptions for 115 yards and a TD.

Another bright spot was "Riverboat" Ron converting on a 4th and 2 early in the 4th quarter and then winding up with a TD when Greg Olsen showed a nice burst down the right sideline to get in for that score. The offense doesn't have any top-end (sub-4.4) speed, but rather has a number of bigger guys (Cam, Greg Olsen, rookie Kelvin Benjamin) with 4.6-speed that can still find paydirt.

Last night it just wasn't enough.

Oh well. At least Al Michaels voiced my own nickname for rookie Ben Benwikere, calling him "The Fed Chief" as I've been doing ever since I first heard the name, let alone when he became a Panther, but very small consolation.

At any rate, the team showed it can play like a very average team - especially against teams with certain styles of play or players. Here's what to be on the lookout for the rest of the year:

- Teams with good edge-rushers will give us trouble: It's because of the lack of talent we have at the offensive tackle position. Can't be fixed this year.

- We need to stick with the run from gun to gun: Cam's not quite ready to carry the team on his shoulders consistently and needs better protection (see above) as well as a decent #2 wideout to put opposite Kelvin Benjamin. Jason Avant and Jerricho Cotchery should be "serviceable" in that role this season, but is a position we should look at upgrading through the draft to get some long-term stability there. It's hard for any QB to get new WRs and hit on all cylinders from day one and Cam missed significant time this year, so they're still behind the curve. If rookie right guard Trai Turner can keep improving, the tackles are actually at least average run-blockers, and running (if it's not Cam) keeps Cam from getting hit. If Jonathan Stewart can start playing full games and OC Mike Shula can help them find some rhythm from game to game, it'll help a lot. Work in progress - should gradually improve over the course of the season.

- Stop giving up big plays: This is what's probably most disturbing to me, because there's no reason for it. The entire front-seven was with the team last year, even if you start A.J. Klein over Chase Blackburn or Wes Horton or Mario Addison over Greg Hardy. The corners actually played well overall last night, but without a pass rush no secondary can cover forever. Antonio Brown got his second TD of the night running all the way across the field left to right, getting open under the zone for an easy catch and score. The rush defense has quite obviously regressed since last season and they need to rediscover their magic to help the weaker offensive unit and keep games close for us. Highly concerning; Kuechly isn't playing up to the standard he set last season.

- As always, winning the turnover battle is key: We gave it away twice and didn't have a take-away. That sort of play will rarely win games. Largely improvable with coaching.

Overall, it just wasn't the Panthers' night last night and the hope is that this will jolt the players out of any sense of complacency that they might have had and re-focus them on doing their jobs play after play with more consistency. Offensively, they need to "play within themselves" - in other words, not ask them to do things they aren't equipped to do. As I've said before, pass when you're supposed to run, run when you're supposed to pass, keep the other team off-balance with creative (even slightly bizarre once in a while) play-calling, but above all take care of the ball. In Carolina's case, punting isn't the worst thing in the world. Pinning the other team inside their five yard line only to give up two 50+ yard runs in three games is.

Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye

Armchair GM: What Should Gettleman do in the 2015 Draft?

#462045661 / gettyimages.com

The victory over the Detroit Lions was hard-fought against a great offensive team. The Lions also have one of the premier defensive lines in the NFL, and unfortunately, it showed.

Some of the issues are to be expected. Right guard Trai Turner is a rookie, and he's going to miss assignments at times. It's called growing pains.


However, Nate Chandler on the right side had his share of miscues as well. Yes, he's still "learning" the position, but in his 2nd season, he should at least know whom to block. It's the actual blocking part that can give him trouble - especially in the passing game.

Same thing for LT Byron Bell, but Bell seemed to hold up better in this game. He still gives up too much ground when he's engaged and needs to be more aggressive in keeping the shape of the pocket for Cam. Bell doesn't have the lateral agility to handle a decent speed-rusher.

Everyone struggled in the running game against Detroit, but Jonathan Stewart had a great game, considering the hit-or-miss holes he was looking at. Cam won the game in the second half with his throwing while the defense had several takeaways to keep Stafford, Megatron and company on the sidelines.

Detroit's front-four aside, they have a very pedestrian defense, however. Cam did look better than I expected he would, but this is not your Seahawks defense he was up against.

With all three offensive tackles being undrafted free agents, the level of talent just isn't there on the outside. They give it 110% every down, both Byron Bell and Nate Chandler, but I've said it since Bell became a starter on the right side: He is NOT a tackle.

Perhaps the Pittsburgh game Sunday night will tell us more. In the preseason, Jarvis Jones abused and misused Byron Bell, making him look really bad on a couple of plays and forcing Bell into a false start penalty as he tried to time the snap precisely in order to get maximum time to get set while trying to block him.

However, Carolina has gotten off to a 2-0 start and looked very good in doing so. We all have to keep in mind the competition level as well. The road opener at Tampa Bay and last week's home win against Detroit. Given the 56-14 thumping the Bucs took at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons last night, I'd say they're a great candidate for finishing a distant 4th in the NFC South. 4 wins would look like a good season for them this year.

It all means we don't yet know how our makeshift tackle situation will hold up when the meat of the schedule hits, starting in week six, when we begin a brutal stretch. Games at Cincy, at Lambeau Field against the Pack, home against Seattle and New Orleans, then at Philadelphia will really test the mettle of the entire team on both sides of the ball and should expose our weak areas to look closer into during 2015's draft.

This past draft didn't "break our way" after the first few rounds, but it did early. We missed out on Pierre Desir by one pick and traded up for The Fed Chief to assure some fresh help at cornerback. Depending on Bene Benwikere's development this season, CB may be a position that by draft time next year might not be a huge need. Depth? Probably still; yes.

As for now, Bene Benwikere occupies the nickel safety position while Gettleman continues his "one-year rental" program for areas where we don't have the money to upgrade.

It's just too early to know what kind of depth might be in the draft. It's possible we could get two tackles, or none yet again, if the value isn't there, but sooner rather than later that area needs to be addressed.

Ideally, I'm looking at LT, FS/SS, WR, SS/FS, CB with our top picks in 2015. I don't think it's a secret among fans that we need to address needs in the defensive backfield with some talented, low-priced rookies and next year's draft should provide Dave Gettleman with enough carrot-and-stick routine that he should be able to resist (as he has thus far) reaching, but still find a good value or two at some point when considering those five positions.

Here's my own rapid-fire breakdown of the positions I listed and why:

Offensive tackle - as I said, we've got three UFAs on the roster and two start. When Jordan Gross unexpectedly retired, it really increased the pressure especially on Nate Chandler. He and Bell can use some help early in the draft as well as a late flier on a RT-type if nothing else, to make things competitive in 2015's training camp. 1st or 2nd round; 6th-7th round.

Free Safety - Between Thomas DeCoud and Roman Harper, both safeties that were cast off from divisional opponents this past off-season, DeCoud seems to be the more consistent player. Oddly enough, that's what I'm seeing so far at least. He's serviceable at the position, but neither fellow will be a star player and free safety's a great place to get a ball hawk. 4th-5th round.

Strong Safety - Roman Harper has made some nice plays coming up to the line and making tackles in run support but has also been out of position on some plays. Remember that 54-yard run by Tampa Bay's fullback? That was Harper's fault. A thirty-something SS should be experienced enough to know that, given the situation with Tampa Bay inside their own five-yard line, the play call on offense would be a conservative one. Harper needs to learn to trust the coaches more and their defensive call and play with a bit more restraint and maintain his assignment. Gettleman tried to upgrade the SS position this year with 4th-round pick Tre Boston, but he has yet to contribute and I never liked that particular pick. Unless Boston shows us something and starting soon, his roster spot could be up for grabs by next spring. 3rd-4th round.

Cornerback - I think Benwikere is going to be just fine, and could move into one of the two starting corner spots as soon as later this season. Melvin White continues to steadily develop, but also was undrafted and has a fairly low ceiling for an NFL starter. He could develop into a solid CB2, but the team needs a very strong #1 corner that they haven't seen since Chris Gamble's departure. 1st-3rd round.

Wide Receiver - Here's my "wild card" spot. It indeed appears that Kelvin Benjamin was the steal of the first round, especially where Carolina was drafting. He is already the most dangerous WR on the team and should only improve from here. He's the Real Deal, folks, and can you just imagine a decent young WR opposite him? It would take pressure off the running game and open the playbook as wide as a dental patient's mouth. We could afford a speedster/project in the latter rounds here if one slides. Perhaps a small-school guy that would need a year to really contribute would work fine as long as Benjamin improves and Olsen's play remains steady. We really need to get younger at the position through the draft if Cam Newton is to develop to his full potential. Having a group of WRs that have zero career receptions in camp meant Cam had to "develop chemistry" with an entirely new crew, which hasn't sped things up. Depending on Breston Bersin's ability to contribute as a role-player, Gettleman might take two WRs next year....one early and one late in order to stabilize the roster at the position. 2nd-3rd round, 6th-7th round.

It's not really a huge secret where our weaker positions are. It'll be yet another thing to fill most of those positions with upgraded, value-pick rookies. The "projections" I made are based on team need and of course, Gettleman looks for value and just doesn't "reach" for a needed position. He will likely grab the best available, as usual, and hopefully will happen to be a position of need.

Just like the Kelvin Benjamin pick!

Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye

Why the Carolina Panthers Will Repeat as NFC South Champions

Yesterday, I posted a rather long piece of sober reality with a laundry-list of reasons why the Carolina Panthers won't repeat in the NFC South as champions. While the odds are stacked against it, since nobody has ever done so, but as the saying goes, "There's a first time for everything."

#181800291 / gettyimages.com

If you want the nuts and bolts of what goes into it, please go back and read that article because I'm not going to spend most of this piece repeating those things although I will briefly touch on some of them as points of reference.

Instead, I'm looking at a series of scenarios that, while they all could happen, are doubtful to all occur. However, if they should, the Panthers could wind up at the top of the heap:

Okay, first off, the breaks pretty much ALL have to go the Panthers' way. This is going to be true of any team winning their division, and often the case is exactly that. The NFC East excluded because you can screw up a lot, go 9-7, and win that division.

- The Panthers will HAVE to get off to an uncharacteristic fast start

One look through the Panthers schedule after September should clue you in as to why. Week six starts a murderous stretch where we play at Cincinnati, at Green Bay, at home against Seattle and New Orleans, then a road game in Philadelphia. That's five games we could all either win or easily lose.

The problem lies with the undeniable fact that we're using a journeyman (at best) guard-bodied, undrafted guy at left tackle in Byron Bell when last year we had an All-Pro tackle retire in Jordan Gross who made that Pro Bowl as recently as...last year.

Say what you will about Bell, but I certainly don't see him as a Pro-Bowl tackle. In fact, the offensive tackle spot in general is the weakest position of all on the entire team. Nate Chandler has "upside" at the right tackle position, but is still learning it so I expect up-and-down play from him especially to start the season. Garry Williams is the 3rd tackle and even HE played guard last year.

Byron Bell could play over his head

This is where coaching and Cam's growth and experience comes into play. Despite moving Bell to the left side, there IS a silver lining of sorts here: The two guys (Cam and Byron) came into the NFL together - albeit from diametrically opposed routes as Cam was the top overall draft pick and Bell wasn't even drafted at all - and therefore "grew up together." There has to be a bit of a kinship there that most All-Pro tackles and future Hall of Fame QBs don't have with each other. None of the others in the division have that wrinkle working in their favor.

Each guy knows what the other guy can and can't do well, so with any given play call, they'll have a slight step-up on things. Cam will have a protection scheme in mind should the coaches miss it and could audible for help in case of reading a pre-snap blitz so perhaps one of the backs can be another protection layer for Cam's blind side - if he needs it.

What Bell may lack in ability at the position he's been asked to play, he and Cam should be more "in-tune" with each other than most. With a number of tweaks to the pass protection and with more imaginative play-calling, the coach and teammates could collectively run a scheme that emphasizes blind-side protection, taking some of the direct heat off of Bell that way.

#181709066 / gettyimages.com

The dual-TE formation

Then, there's the dual TE set that so many people expect to see this season.  I like this idea because it gives the offense some options, but again, in the NFL there is no such thing as a free lunch....you gotta give up something to get something.

In this case, the offense will sometimes give up a significant portion of their route-tree so that guys like Greg Olsen and Ed Dickson can "chip" block whoever is going up against Bell. Often, that's all it takes for an average tackle to get the upper hand on even the most talented defender. I don't know exactly when this really became popular, but I do recall when Andy Reid was in Philadelphia, he'd pull his slot WR in towards the line so close that he looked almost like a TE split a tad wide instead.

Complicating this maneuver, however, would be straight-up press-man coverage. If the other defense is playing that type of scheme, if an eligible receiver "chips" a rushing lineman or a DE on a roll, he himself is likely to get punished because you can't chip-block AND fight off a press corner at the same time.

See what I mean about no "free lunch?"

However, I have faith in Ron Rivera as he has taken this team from winning only 5 games his first year to losing only 4 last season. Even after Rivera's patented 1-3 start last season and fans were calling for his head, I wrote "It would be a shame to get rid of Rivera now that he's got 75% of the job done." I really wanted to let him have the whole season played out before we went switching horses in mid-stream. Unless the coach is just entirely horrible, that rarely helps your team that year. It helps for the NEXT season - and only if you keep on the "interim" Head Coach.

Rivera's certainly no dummy and neither are his assistants. Neither is Cam. They'll all know if a receiver is called to "chip," he likely won't be where he's supposed to be when the ball has to come out, so Cam would mentally re-arrange his progressions to take that into account. Since that chip block will help buy him an extra second or two, it should give Cam the time to realize what his best match-up is, given the pre-snap read, and either get the ball to him, the "hot" receiver, or throw it away if need be.

The front seven is even better than last year

Yes, we have the same 7 starters plus some good depth - especially on the D-line - who have ALL been with the team for at least a full NFL season. This gives Sean McDermott the luxury of installing even more wrinkles to what that defensive unit does. You won't see too many missed assignments - that much I've noticed in the preseason. The most glaring one was on that wheel-route TD to Shane Vereen that Tom Brady threw, but that was AJ Klein's fault. He hesitated on his coverage. He ran wide, shadowing Vereen wide, then inexplicably stopped for a split-second. When he started again, Vereen was already starting down the sideline and past him for 6 points.

The pressure will be on our front seven even more this season, and it's quite possible that special group of guys can be even more special and up to the challenge, but it's still a tall order. With a defensive secondary that doesn't seem to have the "upside" that last year's did at this time as Mike Mitchell rose to the occasion and played himself into a nice contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers, this year we're forced to use safeties that nobody else in the division wanted.

Carolina's safeties earn their positions

Roman Harper missed half of last season as the Saints became tough on defense under Rob Ryan and therefore became expendable. Thomas DeCoud, a free safety-type, is a castoff from the worst defense in our division in the Atlanta Falcons, but has showed me that he can be a steady tackler that doesn't give up "truck" yards as I call it.

I think DeCoud will be a much steadier player this season than his time in Atlanta, which just highlights our superior coaching. Same guy - better player. Mike Mitchell last year? Same guy - better player. I see no reason DeCoud should be as well; it's just that he doesn't have the physical tools Mitchell did.

Perhaps he just fits better into our system - or both. Roman Harper always had high tackling numbers in New Orleans, but a lot of that was due to the offense. Teams would get destroyed by Brees & Co. and be forced early and often to the air. Harper made a lot of those tackles on intermediate routes, and is pretty good at what he does there. He's a smart guy who doesn't have a huge ceiling, but he's also got a fairly high floor in Carolina, I think. He should play about as expected this season and he's not afraid to step up and take on physical running backs in run support.

So long as our safeties aren't asked to become man-coverage guys but instead are allowed to play as their position name suggests - a SAFETY - then their jobs should be to clean up any messes on the back end. I don't see any problems there as the defense is a zone-style defense instead of straight-up man-on-man like those that teams like the Jets like to run.

Even with the mightiest front-seven, sometimes things get by them. If DeCoud and Harper can keep fairly big plays from becoming bigger ones or scoring ones, offenses are REALLY going to have to work and work hard in order to get a touchdown against us. Our red zone defense might even be second to none, with Seattle's right close there too. I have just seen too many successful goal-line stands for the rest of the NFL NOT to take notice on that. Wouldn't surprise me if we lead the NFL in fewest rushing TDs allowed, either.

Now - we've planned for the weakness at offensive tackle and let loose the hounds of the front seven to create as much mayhem as possible. So far, we've made our offense less explosive but more protective of the ball, and that's a trade-off I'm willing to make with the defense we have in place. Look to the 2015 draft - and even a possible first-round trade-up on our part - to snag a top-3 LT out of college next year and move Bell back to the right side then.

#461826777 / gettyimages.com

The Secondary needs to be steady without giving up big plays

*I* think the keys in the secondary are going to be Melvin White's development and that of rookie 5th-round pick Bene Benwikere...."The Fed Chief."

The Professor here at C3 has a catchier nickname for him - "Sticky Wiki" - but that's something he'll have to earn on the field. That said, if we're calling him "Sticky Wiki" due to him picking off passes by midseason, that's going to be key for us.

Last year, our offense was pedestrian at best - I don't think anyone denies that. The Carolina Panthers were dead last in "explosive plays" - plays from scrimmage of 20 or more yards - but we STILL went 12-4.

Jonathan Stewart Stays healthy - and productive

IF - and it's a big "if" for sure but still possible - RB Jonathan Stewart stays both healthy and effective all season, we'll have a four-headed Hydra backfield for running the ball with Tolbert, D-Will, and if you include Cam in that equation. Surprise reserve RB Fozzy "Bear" Whittaker can spell any of the backs and with the o-line being built to run-block by default, if Offensive Coordinator Mike Shula can start thinking outside the box juuuuust a bit, it'll give enemy DCs FITS - just to stop the RUN!

That's what makes the play-action pass so successful. They go hand-in-hand.

On offense, seeing the running game improve is the key. I think most fans recognize that, despite great-looking rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin, we're going to be a run-first offense. The passing yards will come, but it won't be our strong suit and I don't think most fans ever thought it would be - at least for this season.

If we'll pass when we're supposed to run, run when we're supposed to pass, and sometimes just cram the run up the middle and down the other team's throat like they used to do to us a few years ago, we can keep games close with the help of the defense.

Kraken on a mission

One other thing I do want to mention about the front-seven is Greg Hardy. He's playing under the "Franchise" tag this season but had the "domestic abuse" trouble in the off-season. He has already pled guilty to one charge, but the bigger stuff won't come up until at least November and his attorneys can probably push things back into next off-season.

That said, he's in a contract year and wants to get paid. He knows he just cost himself millions of dollars due to his perceived increased risk but knows if he improves his sack totals again this year, as he's done in each year as a pro so far, he'll not only break his own franchise record for sacks in a season that he set last year with 15, but if Carolina doesn't want to pay him, 31 other teams would love to have him.

Either way, he'll be a man on a mission this year for sure, and that can only mean 110% effort from him on every play of every game - guaranteed.

With all of the above in mind, should it be able to come together just right like it did last year, the Panthers could very well repeat as division champs. Traditionally, the division winner is the team with the best defense and that makes a very strong case for Carolina repeating right there.

#185767024 / gettyimages.com

Having the ball bounce our way

Carolina will once again have to win all the close games and some things out of their hands will have to go their way - but that's usually the case for whatever team wins a division. There's always at least a LITTLE bit of luck (small "l") involved.

That said, the teams that should give Carolina the most trouble are those that take care of the football themselves, have a very, very stout rush defense, and have a top-10 or so passing game.

Right there, I'm eliminating two of the three NFC South foes. Atlanta doesn't even HAVE a defense, and while Tampa Bay looks to be much improved as much because of getting a new coach as anything, they certainly don't have a proven passing engine that runs on autopilot - not with Josh McCown and Mike "The Giraffe" Glennon. McCown played wonderfully for Lovie last season when called to do so, but don't quite have the experienced people on offense that Chicago has. The Bucs' O-line is so much in question they signed high-priced Logan Mankins to fill one void there and wouldn't surprise me if they sign Richie Incognito as well.

Defense is suspect in Atlanta; the O-line is still suspect in Tampa Bay. It's the Saints that should give us the most problems.

The Saints defense takes a step back

Yes, Drew Brees will once again be Drew Brees, but the team looks to be a bit more balanced than in the past. Bust RB Mark Ingram is himself in a contract year, has looked pretty good in the preseason, and has that added incentive to prove he belongs in the NFL. If he doesn't, Pierre Thomas is a very well-rounded guy who can tote the rock and catch out of the backfield. They've added blazer Brandin Cooks apparently to play the Darren Sproles/long-handoff/flare pass role to get him in space, but trying to beat our defense by going wide almost never is a good idea.

It's teams like the Saints that should give us the most trouble. They have a pretty good offensive line, and if we cannot consistently pressure Brees, he can eat any defense up if he has time. That's the key - if he has time. Since our secondary is no better than last year's was (I'm gonna whine over losing Mike Mitchell forever), the Saints are a team that can consistently use the short, quick-throw passing game to move the chains since even a defensive backfield like that of the 1984 San Francisco 49'ers (where all 4 DBs made the Pro Bowl) who stymied Dan Marino in the Super Bowl won't be able to stop WRs because of the offense-friendly rules changes on defense and the resulting flags we all saw all over the place in general this preseason. Brees is such the perfectionist at what he does, and is SO accurate in his throws, the New Orleans Saints are always going to be a tough out.

However, do the Saints REALLY have a top-five defense? Rob Ryan's scheme for the team is now archived in game film, adjustments to it will be made, and I think the Saints could slide a bit from last year's defense. That "amoeba" defense has always made me wonder why, when a QB sees that, he doesn't audible into a power, straight-ahead run. The "Amoeba" has zero down linemen and that begs the question - Since our O-line has to be all "down in stance" and therefore automatically has an advantage in getting leverage, I'm thinking Cam would just quick-snap that ball upon seeing that defense, letting all 5 linemen (center Ryan Kalil and what amounts to 4 guards in physical stature) just blast forward, mowing down everyone they can get to, while Cam weaves his way through openings to get almost a sure 5 yards or more. Perhaps that's an adjustment the offense will make.

Now I'm getting down into more nuts and bolts than I had wanted to once again, but I wanted to illustrate how we might be able to turn apparent disadvantages into strengths....but we have to play the game TO those strengths. The offense will NOT be "pretty," but rather like a 1970's style Miami Dolphins team who also had three very capable RBs....Larry Csonka, Jim Kiick, and Eugene "Mercury" Morris. Passing rules? pshaw!

The tough times will come when the other team gets up on us by over a touchdown. No secondary is perfect, especially with 21st century passing rules, so they're all tied with a hand behind their backs so at least that part is even and will only help in our own passing game as well, when we do throw it.

So....to win any division you have to play your best over the entire season, have some breaks just fall your way (like New Orleans losing at Seattle late last season), and you have to maximize your chances by taking advantage of turnovers and turning those into points whether by defensive returns or by setting up the offense in good field position.

The biggest trouble spots once again are the offensive tackles and the secondary, none of which are unknown surprises to the Panthers coaching staff. They'll make adjustments to their schemes, as all teams have to do with their own shortcomings, and that front seven will not only negate a lot of errors, but should provide opportunities for the offense to score on a shortened field. Winning the turnover battle is key, and if we can have just one ball-hawk emerge in the defensive backfield, this team still could go far on the backs of the defense and an improved running game. After all, Drew Brees can't hurt you if he's watching from the sidelines now can he?

As far as what the Panthers can control, a fast start out of the gate is imperative. Right now, the Panthers aren't getting ANY respect, and that's something that motivates a team like nothing else can. It worked last year. Will it work again this year?

It certainly can...and it will.

#491750371 / gettyimages.com

NFL's "Sorriest Receivers" out to prove otherwise

Do you think every Carolina player doesn't have that "NFL's Sorriest Receivers" article taped inside their lockers? Not to mention others dissing their chances? Hell, they could have my post from yesterday taped up - not that I'm so popular or widely-read that they'd even know about it, but the point is such articles aren't hard to find. It's only lighting that much more of a fire under each and every guy in that locker room.

If Rivera insists on using the running game and the "vertical passing" game, I'm not so sure that will be as successful as it was in Cam's rookie season. If Rivera decides to establish the run, and can do so in most of the games, and THEN use the "vertical passing" game and/or the play-action pass en route to long passes, I think the team will find more success.

Difficult Schedule could still be manageable

Last year, we had a signature win at San Francisco, 10-9. Week seven this year gives us a similar chance when we play at Lambeau Field against the Packers. The key will be that 5-game stretch I mentioned because the very beginning and very end of the schedule is softer than the middle is. I think we can win at Cincy, which narrows things down to 4 games. If we can just split those and go 2-2 with a fast start, it'll carry a LOT of momentum for us going into the final stretch of the season. Of our final six games, the only really scary one is playing at New Orleans. If we lose that one and lose at home to Seattle, that's 4 losses.

With the early, "easier" schedule in September, the team could play just well enough to win those games while Cam gets healthy and more familiar with his receivers - just in time for the hardest part of the schedule. Sure, there are a couple of somewhat unlikely things that have to happen, but they're things that are within the realm of possibility so long as the team adjusts well along the trip.

Some guys will need to produce more than we think coming in, but that happened last year as well....Star and Kawann come to mind and they're a year more experienced now.

If we can somehow win all those other ball games - in other words "beat everybody we're supposed to beat," we could very well go 12-4 once again...and that, my friendly fans, should be enough to win the NFC South once again and make history in the process.

It happened last year, so it can happen again. These guys have been there before and MADE it happen. WILL it? Like yesterday's article, we won't know for sure until the end of the season, but just as we have issues, everyone else has issues someplace too. I have faith in our coaches to put the team in the best position possible to win any given game. Are the odds against us? You bet.

Then again...they were last year too!!

Let the games begin....and #KeepPounding!

Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye

Why the Carolina Panthers will not Repeat as NFC South Champs

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Okay folks, it's time to get "real" with a single day between the Carolina Panthers and their opening day game at Tampa Bay.

First of all, of course I'm psyched about the season starting and, as always, I'm very hopeful about the prospects for the Panthers this season. They've had a lot of change in the roster, especially at wide receiver, the offensive line, and in the defensive backfield.

However, I've never been a "homer" and always try to tell it the way I see it, and along that vein "hope and change" hasn't worked out as well as we had been led to believe in a more general sense. 

So, let's take a look at specifics...and stay within the parameters of the NFL from here.

What got better:

The short answer here, ironically, is the drafting of 6'5" Kelvin Benjamin. He appears to be all we fans had hoped he would be and even more. Panthers' WR coach Ricky Proehl has worked his magic again, it would appear, and this time he's been given a big ole lump of clay to shape the way he sees fit instead of trying to revive veterans' careers while working with lots of them on one-year deals. 

THAT, my friends, is one heck of a difficult task...and one that he just began anew once again but with former Jets WR Stephen Hill. However, Hill likely needs even more work than did Kelvin and probably won't be a factor at all this season as he works on the practice squad. If he does contribute, it won't be until late in the season and even then, I don't see him being anyone to scare defenses, despite his athleticism, until he is almost literally a new man. 

Proehl's good, but it takes more than him snapping his fingers to do that.

Another thing that should improve is our interior defensive line. No, we've not added anyone but we didn't really need to. Last year's first two picks, both defensive tackles Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short, played up to their ability and perhaps even beyond expectations - especially in Star's case and Kawann looks more disruptive than last year - and now they come into the NFL with a year of knowledge under their rather large belts. This helps them come into camp allowing Sean McDermott the luxury of being able to start at a higher level and go from there than he was able to last season. Star and Kawann were kindergartners in 2013's preseason, in elementary school the first month of the NFL, and finished the season well into high school if you follow the metaphor. 

Instead of having to teach "ABCs," McDermott could start training camp with "college prep" courses and have those two key tackles learning college material now, while the second half of the season should see them graduating and working on their Masters degrees....as in "mastering" their positions and their assignments.

That's what experience does for you, and the front seven returns completely intact from last year. That means they'll be even better now from day one, and the best middle linebacker in the game leads them all. I see several completely dominant performances by this unit this year and if you don't have a solid offensive line across the board, our guys will certainly take advantage without having to bring extra people.

The third thing that should really improve is the interior offensive line. Injuries decimated the O-line actually the last two seasons running. If Ryan Kalil and Amini Silatolu can stay healthy and Trai Turner, projected to start at right guard pans out, the Panthers should have one of the better interior units in the NFL.

So much for the good news.

What got worse:

Oh boy, now the fun begins. 

First off, Cam Newton's health is obviously worse, although the ankle has been "bothering him since college." It is uncertain how much the ankle has healed since he had surgery on it 6 months ago now, not to mention the cracked ribs in his back from preseason. Ron Rivera says his play in week one will be a "game-time decision," but I'll be quite surprised if he doesn't play. Even if he doesn't, the offense is in capable hands with Derek Anderson, who is widely considered the best back-up QB in the NFC South and one of the better ones in the entire NFL, so that's a bit of help. 

However, Newton had no such issues at this time last season, so the situation is worse. This carries over into the second point....

...the yearly "rent-a-roster spot" guys collectively aren't as good as they were last year. At least, not on paper. Mike Mitchell leads the departed defensive group while Roman Harper rings in the new. Mitchell had speed, youth, and physicality on his side and used our front seven to play himself out of our price range for 2014. Good for him - it means he was a difference-maker in our secondary last year - but it leaves us with a hole. I'm rooting for Roman to do as well, but if the 31 year old safety is that good, why would he be available and for a cheaper price than Mitchell? 

Harper, despite chatter, IS durable, having played in all 15 games each season save his rookie year - not surprising in and of itself there - and 9 games last year. The same year the Saints' defense shot up the charts like a rocket. Hmm. Doesn't bode so well for us.

I think at best, Harper should provide a steadying influence on a still relatively young group of corners, including rookie Bene Benwikere. "The Fed Chief" is the wild card of the secondary this year, but hasn't shown much in the preseason and may take time to develop - all while the team is ringing up wins and losses. I like Melvin White's gritty play, but the team still lacks anyone in the secondary that I'd consider an above-average player.

The "rent-a-roster" approach didn't end in the defensive backfield. Just like last year, Dave Gettleman brought in a hapless group of wide receivers on one-year contracts, hoping one or more of them can surpass their previous ceilings they had established in the NFL. Ted Ginn, Jr. was the guy who did it last year but still had inconsistent hands in the passing game although he was a great help to the return game.

We don't have an established kick returner this year, and Rivera has already cut one of the one-year WRs in Tiquan Underwood as Kelvin Benjamin has risen to the top of the depth chart as a rookie.

We also haven't seen much of Jerricho Cotchery in the preseason. We know he's a very experienced guy who had a fine season last year. While teammate Antonio Brown got the lion's share of targets, Cotchery only had 600 yards or so, but with ten TD receptions. Those TD receptions are a statistical anomaly, however, as he hasn't had but 6 TD catches in any other season since entering the NFL in 2004.

Beyond Benjamin, the Panthers once again have a roster full of "threes and fours" - in terms of talent - which means defenses will be smothering the rookie on passing downs. 

Ah....passing. It's something that truly scares me this season, especially after Pro-Bowl LT Jordan Gross retired.

The Panthers have an offensive line that reminds me of one of those small-school basketball programs. They are starting a center and four guards. Please try not to giggle too much.

Yes, Byron Bell is now in his fourth NFL season so we know what he can and cannot do, but Rivera still moved him from playing out of position at right tackle to playing out of his league on the left side. 

Don't get me wrong. I like Byron as a person and he seems to make a wonderful teammate. I've never heard him complain about anything at all, he stays out of trouble, and is an all-around class act. I've said it before and I'll keep ON saying it - I really do root for the kid.

That said, he's NOT a tackle. He's most DEFINITELY NOT a LEFT tackle. He doesn't have the feet for the position and if I had my way as coach, he'd be a right guard all day long and twice on Sundays. Err....well, you know what I mean.

Speed-rushers make him look bad, period. Pittsburgh Steelers' LB Jarvis Jones fell in the draft last year in part due to a slower than expected 40-yard dash time - WAY slower at 4.92 seconds - and Byron Bell made him look like an All-Pro.

One particular play had Bell fooled into thinking Jones was heading outside on the pass rush when he used a crossover move to take the inside route - which is the most direct route to the quarterback - and Bell barely even touched him. 

Not much later on in the game, Bell had a false start penalty on a passing down as he tried to get a jump on the protection by timing the snap exactly right. He was wrong, early, and forced the 5-yard penalty as a result.

The same thing was happening against New England the game before. Chandler Jones abused him pretty regularly in that game as well.

Even so, it might have been possible to slide protection to that weak side to help him out, but the right tackle position isn't in any better hands. Nate Chandler is a converted defensive tackle who began learning the offensive tackle position early last year but is still very raw with his technique and doesn't have the shiftiest feet around, himself. It's probably part of why he was a defensive tackle to begin with, and also why he wasn't drafted. In fact, the entire Carolina Panthers' roster has zero offensive tackles that were drafted at any position!

That alone is hardly a ringing endorsement of the strength of the position. I know both tackles will try their best, but more and more I'm feeling it as a "square peg/round hole" type of situation. I have no doubt in my mind that they'll try their best every single snap on every single day, but they just aren't guys that God made to grow up to be offensive tackles in the NFL. They're both much, much more suited to be guards due to their sheer size (Bell is 340 pounds, for instance) and that they lack the lateral quickness and agility that tackles on BOTH sides need, frankly, in today's pass-happy NFL.

Some of this can be compensated for with using the 2TE set that has been whispered about so much by us fans. The TE can help by using a "chip" block, where they go out in their pass patterns but give the defensive end a not-so-friendly shove on the shoulder, arm, or ribcage to hopefully upset their balance before they can get started into their pass rush, but doing that would limit the depth of the route to maybe 10-15 yards at the most while allowing only 3 other eligible receivers on any given play (other than the other TE). With Chandler's rawness, Greg Olsen may be "chipping" away at the D-line too. 

It also means more "max-protect" blocking schemes, again, which limits the number of receivers in the pattern because not only do all TEs stay in to block, so does the RB. 

In any case, it also means more times where the "hot" receiver (the guy designated to run a very short pattern and/or break off his pattern to make a very quick target for the QB) in case of a blitz or heat on the QB, which looks to happen as often as not. 

All of these issues on offense add up to Mike Shula being Mike Shula - calling a vanilla game plan, taking few chances, and hoping the defense can create a turnover or outstanding punter Brad Nortman can pin the other team inside their 20 (which he's really good at doing) and flipping the field so the offense won't have to be conducting 70- or 80-yard drives to hit paydirt.

Yes, the team has issues but don't all NFL teams? 

That's true - all NFL teams have issues....some are just more glaring than others. The Seattle Seahawks, for example, have a pretty pedestrian offensive line but Russell Wilson is a brilliant young field general who makes the right reads and not only "manages" that offense, but makes plays with both his legs and with his right arm when he's asked to do so. He's also very accurate, which is something Newton has never been known for.

Specifically, the teams in the NFC South have improved overall since last season...other than the Panthers.

Carolina got a little better with the front-seven due to experience gained and added a nice, big target for Cam on the outside. That's really about all the "good news" the Panthers have this season over last. 

This year, they come into opening day with the WR corps having exactly ZERO receptions with the Carolina Panthers. In likely descending order of production this year, there's Kelvin Benjamin, Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant, and another guy I'm really rooting for in Breston Bersin. Bersin's got a great, hard work pays off story, but it won't make him an All-Pro.

The receivers should settle into their duties as the season progresses but the offensive tackles will not. Bell's feet won't get any quicker and neither will Chandler's. 

The lowdown is that defenses will know all of these things, they'll watch as game tape piles up more and more as the season progresses and pass-rushers all around the NFL are circling Carolina on their schedule and placing "friendly wagers" with their teammates as to how many sacks they'll get. The defensive coordinators may even be thinking of playing the strong safety "in the box," knowing we want to establish the run and that Mike Shula is a magician that wears short sleeves so they won't be seeing a lot of things they haven't seen before, and with Cam's ankle still an issue, the "read/option" plays should be limited as coaches want Cam to take fewer hits and Cam likely won't be tallying the 111 rushing attempts he did last season.

It all adds up to a more predictable AND less capable offense overall than even last year's iteration. The defense will keep us in most ball games, but unless they start scoring more points themselves, it's going to be a long season in Charlotte vs. fan hopes and expectations.

What about other NFC South teams?

Atlanta's defense should be a bit better than it has been in the last couple of years due to an influx of drafted talent and a healthy offense. As long as Julio Jones and Roddy White are on the field, Atlanta has as good a duo there as anyone in the NFL. They had a breaking-down Steven Jackson last year with no good options past him, but added rookie Devonta Freeman in this year's draft. He's an improved version of Jacquizz Rogers (and if I misspelled his name I'm sorry but he's now 3rd-string at best so who cares) and looked good in the preseason. Still, I see the Falcons going 6-10 or 7-9, finishing last.

Next, we have the Tampa Bay Bucs, who actually might have the most talented 45-man roster in the division except at one critical position - quarterback. Mike Glennon showed growing pains and struggled as a rookie, but showed some flashes of ability. The Bucs improved their coach above all, trading in a college-style autocrat that players hated with Lovie Smith, a guy who got fired in Chicago because 10-6 wasn't good enough! He brought an experienced QB in Josh McCown along with him. The defense is stout but they struggled offensively last season....so they went 100% offense in this year's draft, including Mike Evans at WR and TE Jenkins (because I don't want to look up the spelling of HIS name either) and trading with New England for proven guard Logan Mankins. So the Bucs improved their situation quite a bit, too. Still, it'll take some time for them to put things together and I'm actually glad to be facing them early rather than late as an away game. I see the Bucs finishing 7-9 to 9-7 this year.

Then, we have the New Orleans Saints. They improved themselves last year when they brought in the defensive coordinator I refer to as "the rock star," Rob Ryan, who transformed a dead-last defense into a top-five unit in a single season. Yes, they let RB Darren Sproles go to Philly, but drafted Brandin Cooks so that's a wash. If Marques Colston can stay healthy, he provides a target the same size of Kelvin Benjamin, but with the pinpoint accuracy of future first-ballot Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees throwing him the ball. Kenny Stills is a second-year deep threat type of WR who had a nice 650 yards and 5 TDs as a rookie and should only improve. LT Terron Armstead has a year under his belt now too. It also appears that RB Mark Ingram is poised to finally have his breakout season (and it doesn't hurt it's his contract year) and if he doesn't, they always have Pierre Thomas to fall back on, not to mention reserve WRs Robert Meachem and Nick Toon. Oh - I forgot one other guy....some fella named Jummy Graham. I think he only got the job because he's Billy Graham's long-lost cousin, but as a tight end had a mere 1,200+ yards and sixteen touchdowns. With all of THAT in mind, I can't see the Saints finishing worse than about 11-5 and I am kinda "feelin' it" this year as far as their chances go. 11-5 is a floor, but 14-2 is their ceiling. 

Even with all the issues the Panthers have internally going into tomorrow's opening day games (Thursday night not considered), I think the defense will keep them competitive and when games are close, anything can happen. I just think it's going to be difficult for the Panthers to mount the four 4th-quarter comebacks that Cam led last year to get to that 12-4 record when they would have been 8-8 without any. 

Gettleman better make acquiring a serviceable pair of offensive tackles his priority for next season...just as he did with tackles on the defensive side last year.

If he can get a pair of those that turn out at their positions as well as Star and Kawann have so far, 2015 could be the Year of the Panther. For 2014 to be that, everything will have to perfectly fall into place and if there's one thing in life I've learned, things rarely go exactly as planned...and the NFC South has yet to have the same team win the division in consecutive seasons. History is not on our side.

Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye

C3 Fantasy League Corner: The Commish's Analysis of League Rucker by Rounds, 11-15

Here are the final five rounds in my CarolinaCatChronicles First Annual FFL Challenge. Keep in mind that the comments I make are relative to the draft positions vs. likely production instead of being a running commentary of how players relate on the field to their teams, unless I mention it specifically.

Keep in mind that at the END of most FFL drafts is where kickers and team defenses generally go.

I'll jump right to it, then!

#462023483 / gettyimages.com

Round 11

1. Steve Smith, WR, BAL 
2. Eric Ebron, TE, DET
3. Carlos Hyde, RB, SF
4. Terrance West, RB, CLE
5. Andre Williams, RB, NYG
6. Ladarius Green, TE, SD
7. Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL*
8. Cincinatti Bengals, TM DEF
9. Riley Cooper, WR, PHI
10. Stephen Gostkowski, K, NE
11. Kansas City Chiefs, TM DEF
12. Chris Ivory, RB, NYJ

* With Steven Jackson's being largely injured and/or ineffective in Atlanta last season, the backfield production is up in the air. Jackson's a year older and has a lot of wear on the tread, so Freeman could be a PPR machine depending on how he develops. Remember, though - the RB position is generally considered the _easiest_ position for rookies to adapt to on offense. Usually the biggest stumbling block is pass protection, but the late rounds is where GMs take their deeper sleepers and more chances with the roster.
FV: RB3/Flex starter to RB4/bench

Safest Pick: Steve Smith - No, I'm STILL not being a "homer" here, but he's one of few bona-fide starters on this list. Smitty still has something left in the tank and while he has a relatively low ceiling with Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta around, he should still make some nice plays.
FV: WR3

Best Value Pick: Terrance West - Carlos Hyde was almost the choice for this, but every year Frank Gore is expected to break down, and every year he continues to be productive. I just don't think San Fran will be much better than 9-7 or 10-6 this year at best, considering the personnel issues they're dealing with all over the place. Terrance West is Ben Tate's backup in Cleveland, Tate has had issues with staying healthy on the field, and West has looked quite good in the preseason. It's even possible West could supplant Tate as the team's starter at some point, and I was considering him with my own pick later in the round.
FV: RB3/Flex starter with upside

Biggest Reach: Stephen Gostkowski - He's the best FFL kicker, but it's still too early to be taking a kicker, period. 


Biggest Surprise Pick: Stephen Gostkowski - same reason

Biggest Potential Upside: Carlos Hyde - With the injuries in the Niners' backfield, if Gore does go down, Hyde should vault to the #1 RB. Once again, however, the Niners should slide this season, but even if they do AND Gore stays healthy, someone's going to have to spell him and Hyde is the guy.
FV: RB4/bench with low-end RB2 potential

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Round 12

1. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, CAR
2. St. Louis Rams, TM DEF
3. Arizona Cardinals, TM DEF
4. Danny Woodhead, RB, SD
5. Robert Griffin, QB, WAS
6. Cleveland Browns, TM DEF*
7. New England Patriots, TM DEF
8. Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
9. Jordan Matthews, WR, PHI
10. Mike Evans, WR, TB
11. Stevie Johnson, WR, SF
12. Graham Gano, K, CAR

* I was starting to think about team DEF here with most of the good ones gone and decided on the Browns. Yes, their offense is in disarray right now, but they play in a division without an offensive juggernaut (the Bengals and Ravens are decent, not great). Top pick CB Justin Gilbert has struggled in his last 2 preseason games, but he was taken #8 overall for a reason. Assuming he returns to form of his first 2 preseason games, he'll only help an already stout Cleveland Browns defense. I also see the Browns getting some fantasy scoring with sacks and again, playing in a division that's relatively weak offensively doesn't hurt. I plan on possibly using matchups on my DEF spot week-to-week, so I still have options open.

Safest Pick: Jerricho Cotchery - Cotchery now looks to be the "other" WR for the likely run-happy Carolina Panthers, but with rookie Kelvin Benjamin's rapid rise and Cam Newton being a dual threat, Cotchery shouldn't get a lot of attention from the defense. He had a nice season last year with the Jets considering he had a rookie QB in Geno Smith throwing him the ball, so he'll still see some decent fantasy numbers considering his draft position.
FV: WR4/bench with a touch of upside

Best Value Pick: Fred Jackson - Pretty amazing he lasted this long especially considering C.J. Spiller's erratic boom-or-bust play. Jackson's the steadier player, still has something left in the tank, and looks to be the short-yardage guy on a questionable offense.
FV: RB3/borderline RB4

Biggest Reach: Graham Gano - by now you should know I don't like drafting kickers.

Biggest Surprise Pick: Jordan Matthews - The Vanderbilt rookie comes in with SEC records on his resume' but goes to a team with a lot of weapons already. They need to replace DeSean Jackson, and Jordan Matthews is one of the more polished rookies. I like the pick, but his fantasy points in any given game will be difficult to forecast for about the first third of the season. Still, I like the pick because he's going to be a bench guy anyway and won't be needed unless an injury or two happens or bye weeks begin.
FV: WR4/bench with some upside.

Biggest Potential Upside:

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Round 13

1. Travis Kelce, TE, KC
2. Chicago Bears, TM DEF
3. Benny Cunningham, RB, STL
4. Carson Palmer, QB, ARI
5. Robert Woods, WR, BUF
6. Jarrett Boykin, WR, GB
7. Charles Clay, TE, MIA*
8. Markus Wheaton, WR, PIT
9. Danny Amendola, WR, NE
10. Coby Fleener, TE, IND
11. LeGarrette Blount, RB, PIT
12. Harry Douglas, WR, ATL

* I took Charles Clay as my productive backup TE to Jimmy Graham.

Safest Pick: Charles Clay - Becoming the starting TE in Miami last year, Clay showed his ability to make difficult catches as well as being able to find the end zone 6 times. In the 13th round, if forced into action, he can be counted on to at least put SOME FP on the board.
FV: low-end TE1

Best Value Pick: Benny Cunningham - Cunningham is behind starter Zac Stacy and 3rd round pick Tre Mason from Auburn, but has had a great preseason and already is competing with Mason for playing time. Mason better keep on top of his game or he could see Cunningham take over the #2 spot.
FV: RB4 with up to RB3 potential

Biggest Reach: Danny Amendola - In rd 13, there are no longer many "reaches" but Amendola is so injury prone it's hard to imagine him being a factor for much of the season. He has only played all 16 games once in his five-year career. At best, he's a 50-600-3 guy....and that's when he's healthy.

Biggest Surprise Pick: none

Biggest Potential Upside: LeGarrette Blount - despite the legal issue, a marijuana charge ironically given the man's last name, with Stevan Ridley's fumbling problems and the fact that Shane Vereen is more of a receiver out of the backfield than a runner, Blount COULD possibly wind up as a TD vulture and/or 4th-quarter game closer. He has no speed but has cut down on his fumbling ratio since his days in Tampa Bay. He also scored 7 rushing TDs last year and if he steals carries from Ridley, he could actually be a viable Flex position player or spot starter. Travis Kelce is KC's TE2 but really flashed potential in the preseason and is a close second here.
FV: RB4/bench with upside depending on the Patriots backfield situation and who is in Billichick's doghouse at any given time.

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Round 14

1. Tampa Bay, TM DEF
2. Phil Dawson, K, SF
3. Steven Hauschka, K, SEA
4. Mason Crosby K GB
5. Justin Tucker, K, BAL
6. Kenny Stills, WR, NO*
7. New Orleans, TM DEF
8. Buffalo Bills, TM DEF
9. Denver Broncos, TM DEF
10. Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11. Dan Bailey, K, DAL
12. Khiry Robinson RB NO

* Stills showed himself to be a fine rookie last season with ~650 rec yards and 5 TDs.
FV: WR4 with upside

Safest Pick: New Orleans TM DEF - Rob Ryan turned a beleaguered defensive unit around into a top-five one last year. 
FV: DEF1

Best Value Pick: Denver Broncos TM DEF - The Broncos were highly active especially on the defensive side of the ball over the offseason and added some much-needed pass-rushing help. They'll be quite improved and more disruptive and with that comes sacks, pressure, and turnovers.
FV: DEF1

Biggest Reach: Justin Tucker - I don't like drafting kickers - what if a regular draftee gets injured in the last preseason game? It has happened before! That said, Tucker probably has the lowest scoring potential of any in the group, but hey...all teams need a kicker for the season opener and drafting one in the next-to-last round is only a round too early.

Biggest Surprise Pick: Buffalo Bills TM DEF - They play New England twice and besides, their defense is one of the most up-and-down units I've seen in recent years. Too hard to tell which games they'll be great and which ones they'll bite the big one for me.
FV: DEF2

Biggest Potential Upside: Kenny Stills - Again, with a nice rookie season and heading into his second year where many WRs take a leap upward in production, if another WR gets injured or under-produces, Stills has the knowledge of Sean Payton's intricate offense and the speed to burn the defense. He has an outside chance of reaching 1,000 yards in such a prolific attack.
FV: WR3/Flex starter

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Round 15

1. Kenny Britt WR STL
2. Ryan Tannehill QB MIA
3. Delanie Walker TE TEN
4. Adam Vinatieri K IND
5. Alex Henery K PHI
6. Blair Walsh K MIN
7. Aaron Dobson WR NE*
8. Cecil Shorts WR JAC
9. Dexter McCluster RB TEN
10. Green Bay Packers TM GB
11. Mike Williams WR BUF
12. Nick Novak K SD

* With Dobson being my final draft pick, I'm still without a kicker, whom I'll pick up on waivers
an hour before the season opener.

Safest Pick: Delanie Walker - another 60-600-6 TE among many, at least he went in the final round instead of 6 or 8 rounds earlier, where similar TEs were drafted that project similar FP scoring over 16 games.
FV: low-end TE1

Best Value Pick: Cecil Shorts - Shorts is an underrated WR now on a team with a ton of young talent at the position after this year's draft. What have I been saying this entire series? Rookie WRs rarely make huge splashes - without Justin Blackmon, Shorts could wind up being the Jaguars' leading WR when all is said and done.
FV: WR3/Flex starter

Biggest Reach: kickers

Biggest Surprise Pick: none

Biggest Potential Upside: Cecil Shorts, Mike Williams, Aaron Dobson - Guys selected in the last round are generally afterthoughts and/or bench players. The three I listed actually have SOME fantasy upside, but have a lot of complications to their fantasy production due to their situations.
FV:WR4/bench with some upside.

Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye

Stephen Hill is of Little Value to Panthers

Stephen Hill, the New York Jets castoff WR, was signed to the Carolina Panthers practice squad, as I thought they might if they could get their hands on him, and here's why:

Firstly, what everyone agrees on: He's a freakish athlete. He's not all that much different from Megatron at 6'4" and with 4.36 speed. He also has a label of not having good hands.

Ricky Proehl, the Panthers' Wide Receivers Coach, is one of the best in the business. More often than not, it's a matter of concentration and discipline. Some of that can be coached.

Secondly, Hill has a legitimate complaint about his time in New York. Let's face it, he had Mark Sanchez and a rookie Geno Smith. Hardly fear-inducing field generals. He came out of college as that freakishly athletic, raw WR from a very heavy run-oriented offense so he was going to take time to develop in the first place.

I think he never reached his potential largely due to circumstances. Rex Ryan runs the NFL version of the Wishbone almost - he just loves the "ground and pound" style of offense. That, combined with QB woes combined with lack of production resulted in his ouster.

Some people tried to say we don't have anywhere to keep him, saying he wasn't eligible for the practice squad, were just plain not the football savants they think they are.

In their defense, the practice squad rules got an overhaul this past offseason. For example, you get some extra guy - but only if he's a foreigner. There are a lot of others but if you read them, it's almost like listening to Captain Kirk describe how to play "Fizzbin."

Anyway, the best part of all of this is that Hill comes extremely cheap. As I had mentioned in my argument in favor of at least taking a look at him was the salary he'd command from the practice squad. $5000 a week.

Actually, it's like $6,333 or some oddball number like that but the point is that Hill still makes pretty good money (for you and me) so his family won't starve while the same amount won't exactly blow the top off of our own salary cap.

That being said, he's going to first have to start to learn a whole new offense mere days away from Opening Day. He's STILL raw and likely has low confidence after these past few days not to mention his play on the field.

Add in the likely high number of adjustments Proehl will want to make to Hill's mechanics, and what we have is a cheap (salary-wise) 6th-string receiver who won't contribute a lick to the Panthers for the near future.

At most, he might be tried as a kick returner but otherwise won't be seeing the field. Certainly not as a WR - unless someone gets injured. I don't like thinking about that, but it would take a few injuries to actually put Hill on the field.

I think the best-case scenario is the kid gets off on a good footing with his coaches and embraces the fresh start he's been given. I can say he really wasn't happy in New York, and sometimes a change in venue can really help. He did go to college at Georgia Tech, so perhaps Charlotte is the place for him.

I sure hope so, but let's not get too thrilled just yet at the prospects. Because of the circumstances, I think the best-case scenario for him would be to learn the system, flash some ability once in a while, get the coaches intrigued, show progress - LOTS of progress - with his fundamentals and hope to get a fair shot in training camp next year.

It'll be one less rent-a-receiver Dave Gettleman has to find.

Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye

C3 Fantasy League Corner: The Commish's Analysis of League Rucker by Rounds, 6-10

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Hey, gang.

Since the post I made Sunday drew some positive interest from hard-core FFL GMs, I thought I'd go ahead and look at the "middle five" rounds of our own first annual CarolinaCatChronicles.com FFL draft.

The hope on my end is to help those who have yet to draft their own FFLs see who went where, at least in our 12-team PPR "Rucker" league in our Panthers fan mega-league made up of four leagues with 12 teams each. Right now, I'm just looking at the draft in my own league where I have a team.

You can see the rules and formats here: C3 Fantasy League Corner: The Commish's Analysis of League Rucker by Rounds, 1-5  and see the first part of the draft in case you missed it.

I also added another category for this post since we're not in the early rounds anymore. I'm calling it "biggest potential upside" due to the fact that in later rounds, there's more uncertainty about individual draft picks - it's just the nature of the beast.

Round 6

1. Ray Rice, RB, BAL
2. Vernon Davis, TE, SF
3. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, DEN
4. Julian Edelman, WR, NE
5. Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
6. Joique Bell, RB, DET*
7. Mike Wallace, WR, MIA
8. Percy Harvin, WR, SEA
9. Marques Colston, WR, NO
10. Colin Kaepernick, QB, SF
11. Eric Decker, WR, NYJ
12. Seattle Seahawks, TM DEF

* I took Joique Bell here since Reggie Bush was gone in the 4th round and it's my opinion that the Lions backfield duo should probably split FP roughly 50/50. I'm needing to get some RBs since I drafted my TE, QB, and WR1 all in the first 5 rounds, and Bell represented a nice value for me at this point.
FV: RB2

Safest Pick: Matt Ryan - I recall taking Ryan in the 5th rd last season but added Tony Romo later. Good thing too, since the Falcons had so many injuries on offense. That's unlikely to happen in consecutive seasons, however, and adding good-hands rookie RB Devonta Freeman should make the Atlanta offense that much more potent when the NFL's top WR duo - Roddy White and Julio Jones - are all healthy. The Atlanta defense is horrid, so the Falcons should be airing it out quite a bit and Ryan should be back to his normal FF form for 2014.
FV: QB1

Best Value Pick: Marques Colston - Sure, Drew Brees has Jimmy Graham as his favorite target, but when you pass for over 5,000 yards in three consecutive seasons and no obvious reasons why he shouldn't do so again this year, Colston represents a very nice value in the 6th round and has nice upside. Second-year WR Kenny Stills should improve on last year's 600 yd, 5-TD season while rookie Brandin Cooks is the wild card, but should put up even better numbers this season than Stills did his rookie year as he takes over a hybrid WR/Darren Sproles-type role. Even adjusting for Graham's haul, Colston should easily surpass the thousand-yard mark this year if he can remain healthy.
FV: high-end WR2 with upside.

Biggest Reach: Seattle Seahawks team D - Don't get me wrong; the floor for Seattle's D this year is still top-5 at worst, but it's WAY too early to be taking a team defense in the 6th round for a number of reasons. In most scoring systems, including hours, team DEF are the lowest-scoring slot on average over the course of a season (excluding kickers, who aren't football players anyway), AND the fact that "team defenses" by definition cannot get injured. Yes, they can have injured PLAYERS, but all team defenses always take the field. Dallas is the only exception there.
FV: high-end TM DEF

Biggest Surprise Pick: Seattle Seahawks team D - for the same reasons they're the biggest "reach" pick here in round six. I wasn't expecting ANY team D to go until at least the 9th or 10th round.
FV: high-end TM DEF

Biggest Potential Upside: Emmanuel Sanders - Since he has moved from Pittsburgh to Denver and will be taking Eric Decker's old role, Sanders should easily get 1,000 yards at Peyton's Place and 6 or 7 TD catches at minimum. Depending on how he adjusts to this offense and Wes Welker's health, Sanders could be a huge thorn in the sides of defensive backs all season long.
FV: WR2 with upside

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Round 7

1. Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR
2. Chris Johnson, RB, NYJ
3. Jordan Reed, TE, WAS
4. Rueben Randle, WR, NYG
5. Greg Olson, TE, CAR
6. Pierre Thomas, RB, NO
7. Bishop Sankey, RB, TEN*
8. Dennis Pitta, TE, BAL
9. Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI
10. Martellus Bennett, TE, CHI
11. Trent Richardson, RB, IND
12. Lamar Miller, RB, MIA

* Still needing RBs and WRs, I settled on the rookie from Tennessee. Let's face it - there's a reason he was taken in the second round - he's competing against a proven "pedestrian" RB in Shonn Greene and a 3rd down back in Dexter McCluster, so hopes are high that Sankey can come in and produce very quickly and therefore was worth a 7th-round pick. 
FV: high-end RB3/Flex starter with gobs of upside

Safest Pick: Chris Johnson - I was eyeing him for my own pick until he was nabbed 5 picks before me. Hey, it happens in FFL drafts which is why you need contingency plans! Geno Smith isn't much of an upgrade over Mark Sanchez and I think the Jets will be in the market for another starting QB in a couple of years. They've added Eric Decker, who won't have nearly the numbers he had last year in Denver, and CJ2K should top 1k yards, considering Rex Ryan's love of pounding the rock. He also has a great chance of piling up a few monster games, especially considering in our scoring system, long TD plays give a small bonus in scoring on TOP of the yardage and TD FPs.
FV: high-end RB2

Best Value Pick: Chris Johnson - Again, I loved this pick in the 7th round and was ticked I didn't get him. Otherwise, I like Jordan Reed here as well. With RGIII "regressing" this season so far, it should de-value the wideouts while holding Reed's FV (fantasy value) fairly steady if nothing else because he's RGIII's "blankie" and the fact that RB Alfred Morris is not known for his receiving prowess. Either Johnson or Reed are both very nice values at this point.
FV: high-end RB2

Biggest Reach: Jonathan Stewart - Carolina's backfield is crowded when you consider Cam Newton should get around 80-100 carries and the presence of DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert. Stewart has a history of nagging and lingering injuries, but so far has looked good in his preseason action. I just question his ability to stay healthy for 16 games plus the fact he's in a BBC. Even if he gets the Panthers' share of carries this season, his FP ceiling is going to be rather low.
FV: RB3/FLEX starter

Biggest Surprise Pick: Lamar Miller - He's almost as big a reach in rd 7 as is Jonathan Stewart. Miller, entering his 2nd NFL season, was a massive disappointment last year in South Florida, but a lot of that might be attributable to their horrid offensive line. They feel they've improved their o-line there (as do I), but not only is Miller behind Knowshon Moreno on Miami's depth chart, but Moreno was still on the board. There are just too many things going on in the Dolphins' backfield at this point for me to trust ANY of them - especially not with a 7th-round pick and my own feeling is that a third RB they have could supplant the both of them by midseason. Watch out for a quite electric rookie in Miami named Damien Williams....not to be confused with a Dolphins wideout named Damian Williams. Got it?
FV: RB4/bench

Biggest Potential Upside: Trent Richardson - No, I'm NOT sold on Richardson's ability, but with Indy's backfield situation, Richardson should see plenty of touches. There are lots of reasons for him to have relatively low numbers again this year, but Indy's passing game should be even more potent now with Andrew Luck entering his 3rd season and Reggie Wayne's looking "fantastic" in camp. Defenses will be more concerned about the pass, so Trent shouldn't be facing stacked boxes like he did in Cleveland and if he can finally find his "mojo" this year, he could become a 1k rusher almost by accident but I don't see him with more than about 1,100. His upside likely is in goal-line carries as far as FP are concerned.
FV: RB3

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Round 8

1. Antonio Gates, TE, SD
2. Terrance Williams, WR, DAL
3. Darren Sproles, RB, PHI
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, OAK
5. Steven Jackson, RB, ATL
6. Wes Welker, WR, DEN*
7. Kendall Wright, WR, TEN
8. Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
9. Jeremy Hill, RB, CIN
10. Anquan Boldin, WR, SF
11. Brandin Cooks, WR, NO
12. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, CAR

* Welker is one of those guys who gets tons of receptions with a low yds/catch, but should be a pretty steady FP producer. Julian Edelman, who took over Welker's role after the latter left New England for Denver, was taken in the 6th round and they should both have very similar FP for 2014, assuming Welker's concussion a couple of weeks ago gets better as it appears to be doing and in Peyton Manning's offense, he should see a few short TD tosses to help his numbers. The one thing that worries me is that it isn't his first concussion, so it's a high risk/reward pick for me.
FV: WR3/Flex starter

Safest Pick: Kendall Wright - Wright had the "quietest" 90-reception season I've likely ever seen, but the knock on him is he only found the end zone twice last year. I think he'll continue to improve and a three-digit reception total wouldn't completely shock me, but Justin Hunter and Delanie Walker will see their share of targets as well. In round 8, I love Kendall Wright's high-floor here.
FV: low-end WR2

Best Value Pick: Terrance Williams - Wright might be a "safer" pick due to comparing the situations of the two WRs, but Williams showed some downfield explosiveness last season. With enemy defenses a lot more worried about Prima Donna Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams should see single-coverage all season long and it wouldn't surprise me if he put up over 1k yards and 7-8 TDs on the high end.
FV: WR3 with WR2 upside

Biggest Reach: Antonio Gates - Gates has been an incredibly productive TE for a LONG time in San Diego, but he's got a lot working against him this year. He's had foot issues for years, is 34 years old, and last year posted his lowest TD total since his rookie season - all signs that his skills could be on the decline. That said, in the 8th round, he's not really all THAT much of a "reach;" I just like the other selections in this round a little better.

Biggest Surprise Pick: Brandin Cooks - Again, it's a bit difficult to say this particular guy is a huge surprise pick, but it's another case of many things working against him to put up great FP in 2014. Rookie WRs rarely do, for one. For another, the Saints have several established targets and Cooks, being a smaller guy, would have durability concerns in the NFL just because he's an unknown quantity at this level.
FV: WR3/Flex starter

Biggest Potential Upside: Kelvin Benjamin - No, I'm not saying this just to be a "Homer," I'm saying it because of a lot of reasons. I wasn't sold on him when I heard his name called in the draft since he was/is a redshirt sophomore going into the NFL. The other "knock" was questionable hands. Well, in preseason so far, he has exceeded ALL expectations and looks to be the #1 WR on the Panthers as a rookie! Part of that is that the other WRs on the team are really "threes" at best with Jerricho Cotchery being a "two" in football depth shorthand. Benjamin came into camp looking a bit leaner than the 240 lbs he was listed at, looks like his "football speed" is higher than the 4.61-40 he ran at the combine, and his catching radius is humongous...not to mention the fact he should be able to brutalize DBs after the catch with the size and weight difference. With Cam Newton's accuracy still in question, Benjamin should be able to haul in some passes that smaller WRs won't reach, and at 6'5" he's going to be Cam's top red-zone target. Just ask Auburn coach Gus Malzahn about Benjamin's red-zone prowess.
FV: WR3 with WR2 upside

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Round 9

1. Tony Romo, QB, DAL
2. Jay Cutler, QB, CHI
3. Knowshon Moreno, RB, MIA
4. Zach Ertz, TE, PHI
5. Carolina Panthers, TM DEF
6. Phillip Rivers, QB, SD
7. Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC*
8. Darren McFadden, RB, OAK
9. San Francisco, TM DEF
10. Russell Wilson, QB, SEA
11. DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR
12. Hakeem Nicks, WR, IND

* Bowe isn't a reach for me here, but rather I consider him, in FANTASY terms, a valid sleeper with upside. Yes, he could be one of those guys who lies down after getting paid, but in the 9th round his ceiling is quite high considering defenses are going to be more worried about Jamaal Charles.
 - see Dwayne Bowe is a Tremendous Draft Day Value, published just the day before yesterday - well after we had our draft - and Bowe's production increased as his first season under Andy Reid progressed, ending with a 150 yard effort in their playoff loss. As a side note, it's a good thing I went with Brady in rd 4 instead of targeting Rivers here - Rivers was taken a single spot before I would have targeted him had I not already taken Brady! I LOVE IT WHEN A PLAN COMES TOGETHER! WHEW!!
FV: WR3/FLEX starter with WR2 upside

Safest Pick: Tony Romo - "Bad back" or not, "choker" or not, Romo always winds up in the top-10 in FP among QBs. With a horrid defense, the Cowboys should be airing it out from behind unless DeMarco Murray can establish the run AND stay healthy. A "choke" interception is STILL only -4 FP no matter what, and we saw what Romo can do against a defense like Denver's last year....and the NFC East has no great defensive teams so if he's healthy, Romo appears to be set for another monster FF season.
FV: QB1

Best Value Pick: Dwayne Bowe - Moreno is a close 2nd here, but he's had some knee problems during the preseason so I'm wondering about a number of things regarding Miami's running game for 2014. Bowe has the talent to put up some great fantasy numbers here and there, and as I mentioned, he only got better as the season went along last year. In his 2nd year under Andy Reid and with Alex Smith just signing an extension, I only see Bowe's numbers increasing from last season and he could wind up with around 1k yards and 6TDs - not bad for a 9th-round pick. He's suspended for week one, but at this point that's not a concern. He'll still be KC's WR1 and with a harder schedule this season, he should see more targets.
FV: WR3/FLEX starter with WR2 upside

Biggest Reach: Darren McFadden - What GOOD can I say about this guy? In six seasons, the highest number of games he's played in is only 13 in any given year and has averaged only 3.3 yds/carry in each of the last 2 seasons. Pocket Hercules was signed in the offseason, so McFadden is going to be used rather sparingly. Sure, he could have a few surprisingly great performances, but choosing which ones those will be is a fool's errand.
FV: RB4/bench

Biggest Surprise Pick: Hakeem Nicks - I've ALWAYS had an issue drafting ANY player who had a chance to go to a team (in his case, the Carolina Panthers) where his ability was intimately known by that organization's brass (Dave Gettleman, formerly employed by the NYG) AND they make no effort to obtain him. It speaks volumes when your former employer doesn't want you. Perhaps his asking price had something to do with it, but Gettleman has had more than one chance to make a play for him and never did. Gotta make you wonder. Same with QB Matt Flynn becoming available 2 years ago with his former OC in Joe Philbin needing a potential franchise QB in Miami and they didn't pursue him. What happened there? He was signed by Seattle, only to be an $8 million benchwarmer as he got beaten out in training camp by a rookie QB named Russell Wilson. Despite having a good camp, Nicks is always an injury worry as well and Andrew Luck has tons of other targets to choose from (Hilton, Fleener, Wayne, Allen) and last season Nicks managed to snag 896 yards worth of catches....without finding the endzone a single time. THAT, my friends, isn't ALL Eli Manning's fault.
FV: WR4/bench with WR3 upside

Biggest Potential Upside: Zach Ertz - Entering his second season, there's a lot of buzz about Zach Ertz. He's got nice size at 6'5" 250 lbs, as a rookie his line was 36-469-4, and all 3 numbers should improve simply due to his having an NFL season under his belt. With the Eagles jettisoning WR DeSean Jackson and with Jeremy Maclin looking more fragile than not, Ertz could wind up being the most dependable target in Chip Kelley's high-octane offense.
FV: TE2 with low-end TE1 upside.

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Round 10

1. Andy Dalton, QB, CIN
2. Heath Miller, TE, PIT
3. Andrew Hawkins, WR, CLE
4. Justin Hunter, WR, TEN
5. Bernard Pierce, RB, BAL
6. Joe Flacco, QB, BAL*
7. Stevan Ridley, RB, NE
8. Sammy Watkins, WR, BUF
9. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
10. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU
11. Golden Tate, WR, DET
12. Mark Ingram, RB, NO

* I drafted Joe "Long Wind-up" Flacco simply as my backup/bye week QB. Also, if Brady goes down and I still manage to make the playoffs, Flacco will be facing Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston during our league's playoff weeks but I hope to only have to start him week ten against the Titans at home, and the Titans have been struggling on defense so far in the preseason.
FV: QB2

Safest Pick: Andy Dalton - Dalton runs a better offense than a lot of teams and having a target like A.J. Green doesn't hurt. The Bengals have been a better, more consistent and competitive team since his arrival, but a lot of that is due to their stifling defense. That said, Dalton has a fairly high floor for a fantasy QB at this point and is a very solid pick.
FV: QB2

Best Value Pick: DeAndre Hopkins - Hopkins is yet ANOTHER of those second-year WRs looking to leap to higher production. While Houston has issues on offense, Arian Foster should provide a solid running attack and defenses will still be giving Andre Johnson the most attention in the passing game. Hopkins was drafted to be Johnson's complimentary WR and has the tools to do it. With the Texans finishing 2-14 last year, it's quite possible they'll be throwing the ball more because of being behind, but having JJ Watt and rookie sensation Jadeveon Clowney should provide a lot of disruption on their side of the ball and give Houston more chances to be in games they wouldn't have been in last year. They also just signed Ryan Mallett, so the offense is a work in progress.
FV: WR4/bench to WR3/Flex starter

Biggest Reach: Mark Ingram - The former Heisman Trophy winner from Alabama hasn't done squat in the NFL in his first 3 seasons and appeared in all 16 games only in his sophomore season. He's also not a guy with great hands, having only caught 24 passes in his CAREER and in a pass-happy offense in New Orleans. Lastly, he's playing behind Pierre Thomas, who had 77 receptions last year alone, so I just don't see much of any fantasy value for Ingram - even if Thomas gets injured.
FV: RB4/bench

Biggest Surprise Pick: Mark Ingram - Why in the world take Ingram when guys like Terrance West, Carlos Hyde, and Devonta Freeman are still on the board?
FVL RB4/bench

Biggest Potential Upside: Justin Hunter - This kid is an enigma, only having had 18 rec for 354 yds but 4 TDs as a rookie last year. He was only a factor in two games, but in those two games he had over 100 yards and a TD in each one. Averaging 19.7 yds/catch is completely insane, and given the fact many WRs don't hit their stride until the 2nd year, if things come together this kid could really be a steal in the 10th round. The biggest problem was his inconsistent play as a rookie, so he's a very low-floor, high-ceiling guy but a worthy risky pick at this point.
FV: WR4/bench with up to WR2 upside

My Own Strategy

6th Round

Needing to fill in my fantasy team with some RBs since I went TE, RB, WR, QB, WR in the first five rounds, I knew other than Arian Foster there weren't going to be any known "workhorse" backs at the time we drafted. It's certainly possible one may develop into one as the season progresses (see my 7th round pick below), I knew Joique Bell should be about equivalent to Reggie Bush and thus presented me with a pretty good value here. Bell got 8 rushing TDs as the goal-line back and at 5'11" 220 lbs he's the "thunder" back to Bush's "lightning" role. With over 200 total touches and over 1000 yards from scrimmage and those 8 TDs last season and with Bush at 29 years old, I feel Bell's numbers should either be similar or get a bit better for 2014.
Grade: B+

7th Round

I took my 3rd running back here in rookie second-round pick Bishop Sankey. This kid can do it all, but has to work his way into the NFL by doing. With Shonn Greene being a journeyman runner who can rush but isn't a receiving threat from the backfield, and Dexter McCluster being the other way around, Sankey should be able to do both and the hope here is his playing time will only increase as he demonstrates his on-field ability. Since I already have Foster and Bell, this pick was as much for depth towards the end of the FF season as it was a pick for upside potential, given the guys in front of him.
Grade: B

8th Round

Now that I've got a lot of my starters more or less set (remember, there are 2 flex spots, 2 WR spots, and only the one RB spot), I went looking for the "BFPA" (Best Fantasy Player Available) within reason. I knew that Wes Welker just had suffered a concussion in the preseason, but that he was progressing well through the NFL's concussion protocol. Figuring he and Julian Edelman as near-equals in fantasy football and having Edelman go in the 6th round, I went with Welker. It doesn't hurt that his QB is Peyton Manning and yet another guy with high TD scoring potential simply due to the offense he's in. Last year saw his numbers in catches and yardage dip, partly due to missing 3 games, he still found the endzone ten times and I see no reason for his production to drop much as I project him to snag 7-8 TDs this season. He's another guy who shouldn't see many "stinker" games but who also has the ability - again, due to the offense he's in - to have a few "monster" FFL scoring games.
Grade: A-

9th Round

This is the pick of this middle group that I feel has the biggest potential to be a fantasy monster the more the season goes on. The Chiefs have a harder schedule than last season, the Denver Broncos greatly improved their defense in the offseason, and again, Bowe finished last year with 150 yards in their playoff loss. His production should pick up where it left off last year as Alex Smith's #1 target, and with the Chiefs probability of being behind in more games, he should see more looks than he did last year. Plus there's the fact of having had a season under both the new coach and QB, so familiarity helps him....and I can live with the opening-day suspension as Bowe has a finger issue (unlike Johnny Manziel's "finger issue") that an extra week won't hurt to rest. I feel the stars aligning for this talented guy.
Grade: A

10th Round

With Rivers, Romo, and Dalton having been drafted recently by now, I felt it was time to pick my bye week/backup QB in the form of Joe Flacco. If Brady gets injured, I'm probably fantasy toast anyway, but with Flacco at least I get a decent bye-week start for him when they play against the Titans' defense at home, giving me a decent shot at winning that week without Tom Terrific. Flacco has the big arm and a WR in Torrey Smith to use it along with chains-movers Dennis Pitta and Ray Rice being capable receivers as well....not to mention Smitty! In case of disaster and I still make the playoffs, Flacco's wk 14-16 schedule is soft defensively and he has good targets, so all isn't completely lost if I have to go with him at the end of the season.
Grade: B

My Overall Thoughts

At this point, few drafts go exactly as you plan, but I was very relieved when I saw that when I had earlier changed my plan from taking a top-tier QB in the 2nd if one fell to me (one didn't) to taking a likely top-tier fantasy QB in the 4th with Brady worked out. I was even more relieved when I saw Phillip Rivers go the very pick before I would have had him targeted. Sometimes it's better to be safe than sorry, and this draft so far was one of those cases other than banking on the growth of Cordarrelle Patterson.

Otherwise, nothing all that special hit me in the middle rounds...usually the shock and awe as it were comes early. However, given how the middle 5 rounds went, I'm quite pleased with who I was able to get.

With the NFL becoming more and more of a passing league and since this is a half-point-per-reception league, it's still better to pick RBs that can catch vs. those that can't or don't. Not only do you get that 0.5 FP (the same as a 5-yard non-scoring rushing attempt), RBs always average more yards on a catch than they do on a rush. Taking J. Bell (DET) for his TD vulture ability and his receiving ability while in a platoon with Reggie Bush was a good move where I got him. Bishop Sankey as a rookie will always be a question mark in fantasy drafts, but given his high draft pick status (2nd rounder with 0 RBs in the first in the 2014 NFL Draft) and the lack of upside talent among the other backs on the team, he was also a logical choice at the time and could turn out to be a nice value.

However, it was the Dwayne Bowe pick of these five that elicited the most approval from the draft room - at least among those that spoke much. I really like Cordarrelle Patterson's upside/star potential entering his second season as the Vikings offense should be quite improved, and defenses are always going to look at Adrian Peterson as the main threat until he proves otherwise, which should only help Patterson's production. He also is a deep threat with incredible speed that can have some monster fantasy games especially considering the small bonus for longer TDs, beginning at 40 yards and increasing even more at 80. Even without the bonuses, long scoring plays rack up the yardage...not to mention the 6 FP for scoring that TD.

Overall, with 11 of 12 owners showing up to draft live, the competition was fierce and the other GMs really seemed to know what they were doing, so I felt good in that I usually had 2 or 3 draft picks in mind to realistically draft the next round. I think only twice did all of them get taken and I had to "scramble" a bit, but I still did fine especially considering I eschewed the "RB in round 1, RB in round 2" age-old FFL draft rule.

The reasons for that are many, but since I didn't have a top-five pick, I wasn't about to "reach" for a workhorse RB when only a couple were left, and those guys aren't top-tier. Taking Graham at #7 overall, once again, gives me a distinct advantage because I'll be producing week-in and week-out at a position where very, very few GMs have that luxury and that helps make up for lacking a bit in my RB depth.

Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye

6.1 (61st overall)	Ray Rice RB BAL	License to Kalil
	6.2 (62nd overall)	Vernon Davis TE SF	CAMing for you!
	6.3 (63rd overall)	Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN	ChiveOn
	6.4 (64th overall)	Julian Edelman WR NE	Catch Me If You Cam
	6.5 (65th overall)	Matt Ryan QB ATL	cardiac cats
	6.6 (66th overall)	Joique Bell RB DET	Carolina Rifles
	6.7 (67th overall)	Mike Wallace WR MIA	Knights of CAMelot
	6.8 (68th overall)	Percy Harvin WR SEA	Ron Top of the World
	6.9 (69th overall)	Marques Colston WR NO	Kony Island
	6.10 (70th overall)	Colin Kaepernick QB SF	13 Degrees of K Benjamin
	6.11 (71st overall)	Eric Decker WR NYJ	the fig newtons 6.1 (61st overall) Ray Rice RB BAL License to Kalil 6.2 (62nd overall) Vernon Davis TE SF CAMing for you! 6.3 (63rd overall) Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN ChiveOn 6.4 (64th overall) Julian Edelman WR NE Catch Me If You Cam 6.5 (65th overall) Matt Ryan QB ATL cardiac cats 6.6 (66th overall) Joique Bell RB DET Carolina Rifles 6.7 (67th overall) Mike Wallace WR MIA Knights of CAMelot 6.8 (68th overall) Percy Harvin WR SEA Ron Top of the World 6.9 (69th overall) Marques Colston WR NO Kony Island 6.10 (70th overall) Colin Kaepernick QB SF 13 Degrees of K Benjamin 6.11 (71st overall) Eric Decker WR NYJ the fig newtons