Is the BPA (best
player available) draft strategy really just BS? Yea, kind of. No one really
thinks that BPA can be applied sterilely in every situation. If that was the case, GMs would have to take
players that wouldn’t start or improve the make-up of their team. The extreme example
of a team with a franchise quarterback, like New England or Green Bay, taking a
quarterback over a top rated player in a position of need alone dispels sterile
application of BPA.
But the Godfather
Gettleman has reminded us over and over that is what Carolina plans to do, take
the best player available.
What does this really
mean? Throw out the extreme example of
taking a quarterback and consider a player like ILB CJ Mosley, who Draftek.com
projects as a 9th round pick and Draftcountdown.com has falling 19th
round pick. Why the large discrepancy in
projections? No one really questions Mosley’s football ability, but there are
concerns about his health and durability.
While unlikely, imagine if Mosely slipped down the draft board to
#28. Would Gettleman really consider
taking Mosely given we have a franchise middle linebacker in Luke Kuechly? It’s doubtful.
If something like
this were to occur, it would be reminiscent of falling Star Lotulelei in the
2013 draft. Carolina grabbed him because
he was the “best player available,” some claiming he was the best of the entire
draft. Then again, Gettleman sterilely
applied the BPA formula when grabbing Kwann Short, or did he?
Carolina’s defensive
line had big gaping holes right up the middle.
Grabbing Star and Short may have been applying the BPA formula, but
defensive tackle was also a position of dire need. Just consider how dramatically Carolina’s
defensive performance jumped after addressing this position of need with the
BPA.
Again, you may be
saying these are hyperbolic examples. Perhaps,
but I think hyperbole sometimes helps us to gain our bearings a bit. Still let’s consider
a more realistic scenario to test the BPA formula. Grant there aren’t any major slips of players
that are “high” on Gettleman’s board, who are clearly out of reach. A Zach Martin, Taylor Lewan, Kyle Fuller, or
Mike Evans doesn’t somehow tragically (or magically) fall to #28. How does the BPA formula pan out then when it
isn’t as clear cut who is the best player on the board or what position
Carolina needs to address in the 1st? Is it as easy as taking the “best player
available” or do you also factor in need as well? People who call for Carolina to draft an
offensive tackle in the 1st clearly endorse the latter.
Recently, Mel Kiper
questioned the talent at offensive tackle being worthy of a 1st RD
pick, stating “I don’t see anybody at 28 from an offensive tackle standpoint that would excite me over a wide receiver.”
Bill Voth, an analyst
who has been annoyingly spot on with Panther coverage over the past months (and
just started BlackandBlueReview.com, which I advise checking out) warns Panther
fans that this doesn’t mean the Gettleman will automatically look to a wide
receiver as Kiper suggests. Voth writes:
“But once the Panthers are on the clock at 28, if someone at another position — say cornerback — is higher on Carolina’s board than a receiver, they’re going to take the one they believe gives them the best value.”
This is something
that I’ve been saying for a while! While I agree with Voth about potentially
drafting a corner in the 1st, it’s not necessarily because I believe this would
be a BPA pick. I don’t think it is that simple.
Several draft
analysts think that cornerbacks will be flying of the shelf in the late first
round, partly because the new NFL is moving to this Seahawk model and partly
because the drop-off between top cornerback prospects and the second level guys
is substantial. It’s not clear that this
drop-off is as acute with wide receiver or offensive tackles that will likely
be available at #28. That means it may
be best to jump on a guy in the 1st who isn’t the best player
available because the guys in the 2nd and 3rd round are
well….not the best players available.
So what does Voth’s
cautionary advice tell us then about BPA? It tells us that BPA really means
BPAIPON (best player available in position of need) in the context of the draft
as a whole. As Cover 32’s Reid Foster
said on Cat Chronicles Combine Special, you have to look at the context of the
whole draft when determining BPA.
Reputable Panther
analysts, however, have chastised fans for questioning the BPA formula. Many of
these very analysts have praised the idea of drafting an offensive tackle in
the 1st strangely. Voth in a
very fatherly tone mentioned that he was “pleasantly surprised” that Panther
fans voted to draft an offensive lineman over a wide receiver in the 1st
RD.
Really, I understand
the arguments behind BPA and drafting an offensive lineman in the first. What I don’t buy is the idea that drafting
Morgan Moses or Cyrus Kouandjio coincides with the BPA strategy. I don’t think that drafting a cornerback in
the first, as Voth suggested in response to Kiper’s comments, necessarily aligns
with the BPA formula either.
Look, I’m fine with Carolina
drafting an offensive tackle in the 1st. Sure, I’d be a little disappointed because it
wouldn’t be the sexiest of picks, but Carolina needs help on the offensive line
about as badly as the needed a defensive tackle last year. What I’m not fine
with is people trying to sell that tired BPA formula as an explanation of why
Carolina would draft a guy “with potential” or a guy with “injury concerns”
over Beckham, Jr., Marquis Lee, Kyle Fuller, or Bradley Roby.
Gettleman and the BPA
advocates may say this was the highest guy on the board, so they picked him….but
would you ever expect him to say otherwise? As Foster noted, you really have to
look at BPA in the context of the whole draft, carefully measuring the drop-off
in talent between the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd RD
guys. Looking at BPA in a vacuum is about as silly as disregarding BPA near
entirely to focus on positions of need.
I’ll put the question
to you. Say Bradley Roby, Morgan Moses,
and Odell Beckham, Jr. are all on the board at #28. Who do you draft if you
were to sterilely apply the BPA formula?
Create your free online surveys with SurveyMonkey , the world's leading questionnaire tool.
