Early Fantasy Trends: Do Not Reach for a QB
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So I was drinking a Vitamin water while playing a game of Drawing with Friends on my Blackberry
when I realized how important staying trendy was to me and my swag. In the rapidly changing world of pre-draft
fantasy football, recognizing and working with these trends can always give you
a leg up, so here are a few I have noticed so far. Chiefly, draft running backs
and wide receivers early and often, and be patient with quarterbacks and tight
ends. My numbers are based on a standard scoring ESPN 12 person snake draft.
Quarterbacks. QBs are deep this year. Peyton Manning is the only one going in the
first round (Aaron Rodgers is currently ranked 12th, so he straddling 1st and
2nd), with Drew Brees and Mr. Rodgers early in the second. That is it until Rd
4, where you can get Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Matthew Stafford, all of whom
will be very good this year. That is the first six quarterbacks and where you
take one is going to affect how you take RBs, WRs, And TEs. Otherwise wait
until the sixth where you can get RG3, Wilson, and Foles, all of whom will be
very draftable and startable. Or why not
wait until the eighth? This year the QBs
ranked 10, 11, and 12 are Colin Kapernick, Matt Ryan, and Tom Brady, all three
of whom I believe are goin cheap and will have a bounce back season.
Tight Ends. On the current ESPN Top 200, and in the current Mock Drafts, all of the
RB1s and WR1s are gone by the end of the 3rd Rd. So if you want to
get Gronk, Jimmy Graham, or Juluis Thomas, three great players, you will pretty
much have to give up on a top three QB. Keep that in mind when you are looking
at the running backs in the first two rounds. The top six tight ends this year
are going to be good, but the TE position is relatively deep these days. In a pass happy league, pass happy TE’s are
becoming more common; so if Graham or Gronk slip too low, scoop them up. Otherwise
wait, only half of the TE1s will be gone before the 8th round or so.
Running Backs. Take a RB in the first round,
period. RB1s are selling like hotcakes and all 12 are gone by the end of the
second. The second round is also very wideout heavy this year, which means nine
out of twelve RB1s are projected to go in the first, with only three left in
the second. Keep that in mind if you really think Peyton Manning or Jimmy
Graham are going to produce like last year again, which they won't, because
that first round quarterback just might lead to a second round pick with no
RB1s left. And if you take Megatron, you
had definitely better take a RB second and third. All of the RB2s are going to
gone by the fifth round, and although there is some talent there, if you take a
low end RB1, you better have a good 2nd string. By the fourth round, you had better
have two RBs either way. We all saw how disappointing first round running backs
were last year so I definitely recommend having solid RB2s and RB3s. With how
deep QB is this year, taking three running backs in the first four turns is not
crazy. But if you do this, get a WR early too.
Wide receivers. The good wideouts are going fast this year too. Last year getting
talent here late was relatively easy, but not this year. All of the top 12
wideouts, the WR1s, are gone by the end of the 3rd Rd, and the next
12 are gone by the fifth. In fact, ranked in the current top 60, (5 rounds in
12 team leagues) there are only six QBs and four TEs. So go wideouts early. As the feature running
back becomes rarer in the NFL, having a consistently high scoring wide receiver
becomes even more important.
In summation, if I
had to draft today, my first five picks would be 3 RBs and 2 WRs, but I also
would not be against taking a QB in the fourth and loading up on RBs and WRs
for the next three rounds. So I am not saying do not take Cam in the fourth,
but I am saying do not take Manning, Brees, or Rodgers. Today, I would wait until
the sixth round. Then choose whether you want a sixth round QB or an eighth. If
you ask me, the first three are your tier 1, Newton Stafford and Luck are tier
2, and all the other top six are tier 3, so in a year when you can get Tom
Brady at the end of the eight round, there is no rush. TEs are plentiful still
in the eighth, so I also wouldn't take one of these too early.
Never go into draft
day with a set in stone must do strategy, but definately have some kind of
strategy. This whole article has basically been a very detailed way of saying
that this year the strategy I recommend is “Draft
WRs and RBs early and often, and be patient on QBs and TEs.”
By Matt Haithcock
By Matt Haithcock