The Rearview Mirror: C3FF Redraft Rounds 2-4
/Rds 1-2, snake draft
When I first started researching for the a first-round redraft, which you can open here in a new window, I was fascinated with how/where some of the names popped up so I decided to carry through a bit more and do more rounds.
That said, Yours Truly had the top choice in round one and took All Day; most of you know that leagues generally do snake/serpentine drafts, so I had the final pick of the second round, then the first of the third, so I had a very long wait before making consecutive choices.
Let's dive right in, then:
Round Two
2(1) PICK: Dez Bryant, WR, Dal Re-Draft: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans
Hopkins led WRs in FP for a large swath of the season, but mediocre QB play on his team has capped his fantasy output in recent weeks. Still, he has an easy playoff-weeks schedule as he faces Indy and Tennessee in weeks 15 & 16, then Jacksonville in wk 17 just for good measure. Hopkins has taken the role that Andre Johnson had a few short years ago.
2(2) PICK: Julio Jones, WR, Atl Re-Draft: Allen Robinson, WR, Jax
Robinson was one of my top-five breakout candidates in fantasy football for 2015 and he certainly came through - unlike two of the five I chose - and ranks a very solid 6th overall in FP for WRs. I liked Robinson coming out of Penn State last year as the most polished guy entering the league in that draft. He has really come on strong in 2015. A FF playoff run of Tennessee, Indy, Atlanta, and New Orleans is as easy as they come, enhancing Robinson's overall value.
2(3) PICK: Odell Beckham, Jr., WR, NYG Re-Draft: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Car
Stewie is 8th among RBs in FP, but Mark Ingram (7th) is on IR. OBJ was taken earlier in the redraft, and J-Stew has a sprained ankle and will miss the game this weekend against the NYG. Tough game to miss, since the Giants give up the farm on the ground, but if Stewie can come back in week 15, his playoff schedule for fantasy football is the same light one Cam Newton from rd one has....Atlanta twice, the Giants, and the Bucs.
2(4) PICK: Randall Cobb, WR, GB Re-Draft: LeSean McCoy, RB, Buf
Shady McCoy is likely the most talented RB whose initials are not "AP" or "TG" and Buffalo's Rex Ryan loves to pound that rock. After being injured for a couple of weeks early in the season, nobody has been posting FP the second half of the season as Shady. He has scored no fewer than 16 FP in any game since his bye week in week eight, and faces Houston, Philly, Washington, and then week 16 against the Cowboys for the playoffs. If not for the hiccup in production early, he'd be a sure-fire first-rounder. Remember that for next season, folks.
2(5) PICK: Jeremy Hill, RB, Cin Re-Draft: Julio Jones, WR, Atl
Julio here is a bit low, surprisingly, considering his 3rd-ranking in FP as a WR, but it's because of his hellish schedule during the playoff run. After a very fast start, he has cooled off along with the rest of his team and faces the Carolina Panthers (and Josh Norman) twice during the FFL playoff run. Still, he managed 11.5 FP (mostly from the slot, where Norman didn't follow) against Carolina last week, and the team will likely manufacture ways to get him the ball when Norman isn't covering him. Still, I wouldn't want to put him in my lineup knowing he faces Carolina again in week 16 - Championship week. Those two games so late in the schedule are what drops his value from a late-round-one pick down to mid-second here. Jeremy Hill has not been the runner they thought they had in Cincy and his erratic play is anathema to NFL coaches.
2(6) PICK: A.J. Green, WR, Cin Re-Draft: A.J. Green, WR, Cin
Green looks like a nice fit here with some monster games during the season and really heating up for the playoff stretch. However, two things drop him from a possible earlier position, and neither are his own fault: A week 16 game at a stingy Denver Broncos defense and the Red Rifle's broken thumb.
2(7) PICK: Calvin Johnson, WR, Det Re-Draft: Mark Ingram, RB, NO
Yes, I'm well aware that Ingram is now on IR, but he ranks 7th in FP among RBs having missed last week's play. Ingram is a guy who would have REALLY helped your FF team qualify for the playoffs before his injury. Let's face it - ALL teams deal with injuries, and Ingram was positioned to be the team's #1 RB in an offense that wanted to be more balanced. He got his wish and finally broke through to show his Heisman talent. .Megatron has played like MiniMe since his injury last season, and Ingram would have helped you a lot more than the robot.
2(8) PICK: Lamar Miller, RB, Mia Re-Draft: Carson Palmer, QB, Ari
Palmer has had probably his best season as a pro and was in perfect position to score lots of FP even before the draft. The Cards have bags of talent at WR and lacked a go-to runner, setting them up to be a pass-first team. His playoff schedule is hard to measure, as teams that were playing well defensively early on are no longer so stout. His last four games (two already played) are against St. Louis and Minnesota (23 and 28 FP, respectively) and finishes up with easier opponents' defenses in Philly and Green Bay. Drafting early (5th via serpentine draft) in the first round means you probably got a top RB with a top-five overall pick, and a top-notch QB pairs with that quite well.
2(9) PICK: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Hou Re-Draft: DeAngelo Williams, RB, Pit
This would have been straight-up precognitive to pull the trigger on, with Le'Veon Bell being the "bell-cow back" and with D-Will sitting in the second spot behind him on the depth chart after Bell's two-game suspension was up. He was set to become the team's 3rd-down back and only when Bell was taking a breather at that, as Bell was a 3-down back. However, injuries being what they are, Williams has shown no signs of his age in taking over for Bell for 2015.
2(10) PICK: Andrew Luck, QB, Ind Re-Draft: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Ari
Fitz's career took a breather for a few years, coinciding with the Reign of Kevin Kolb et. al. Idiot NFL Analyst Charley Casserly claims he'd take Kevin Kolb over Cam Newton "100 out of 100 times." Well, there's probably a reason he's not a GM anymore. At any rate, Fitz has resurrected his career and has shown he's still one of the most dangerous wideouts in the NFL and has hands as good as anyone's. He certainly started the season fast, but his production has fallen off some since week ten, scoring 13, 11, 9.5 and 6 FP over the last month.
2(11) PICK: Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB Re-Draft: Doug Baldwin, WR, Sea
Here's a surprising name for sure, but you cannot argue with his production especially during FFL playoffs in recent weeks and remaining schedule. Baldwin's production was quite scattershot and you never knew if he'd put up a monster game (41, 28.5, and 28 FP the last 3 games and facing Cle and StL wks 15 & 16) or a string of duds (8.5,3.5, 2, 4.5 wks 5-8). However, he's peaking at the right time for the playoffs and would earn a spot in the second round of a re-draft.
2(12) PICK: Brandin Cooks, WR, NO Re-Draft: Jarvis Landry, WR, Mia
My initial pick of Cooks wasn't too off the mark as he's only 15 total FP behind Landry, but Landry's FFL playoff schedule is astonishingly soft: his last 4 games are against Baltimore (1 FP), the NYG (14.5 FP), and finishing up at San Diego and at home against the Colts.
Round Three
Rounds 3-4, snake draft
3(1) PICK: T.Y. Hilton, WR, Ind Re-Draft: Latavius Murray, RB, Oak
Hilton had a disappointing season, mainly due to Luck's unlucky season, and Latavius Murray is part of a resurgent Oakland Raiders offense. Murray hasn't been real spectacular but rather a very steady FP producer each week. You would always get something from Murray in the lineup.
3(2) PICK: Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chi Re-Draft: Matt Forte, RB, Chi
Jeffery's history of injuries made him a wild card each week while his teammate produced each and every week. However, Forte is usually gone by here but that only means someone picked him too high and one of the others should be available.
3(3) PICK: Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Den Re-Draft: Eric Decker, WR, NYJ
Wow, the third New York Jet in 3 rounds? You betcha. Decker is 11th overall in FP among WRs, and that last month fantasy playoff run turns up exactly zero stingy defenses.
3(4) PICK: DeSean Jackson, WR, Was Re-Draft: Calvin Johnson, WR, Det
Megatron should have been a third-rounder as he's 13th in FP at WR and has an easy stretch in that final month for the playoffs. He only produced two monster games (26 FP wk 6 vs. Chi and 31 FP wk 12 vs. Philly) but only two more under 10 FP, making him a steady if unspectacular performer...something you don't normally associate with Megatron.
3(5) PICK: Mike Evans, WR, TB Re-Draft: Russell Wilson, QB, Sea
Mike Evans had a very slow start, finishing 27th in FP at his position despite several monsters...he felt rookie Jameis Winston's growing pains. Wilson, however, felt Beast Mode's running pains and has been carrying the team on his back the second half of the season. Currently ranked 4th in FP among QBs, He has had a crazy last four games (26, 40, 39, 33 FP) and is peaking at the right time for the fantasy playoffs. He could be a team's MVP during the playoffs in fantasyland if he keeps posting numbers like that. He might, as he faces Cleveland and St. Louis in weeks 15 and 16.
3(6) PICK: Mark Ingram, RB, NO Re-Draft: Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
Lots of folks took Rodgers as the 1st QB, and in the 1st round at that! Productive QBs are far easier to find than productive RBs, so anyone drafting a non-RB in the first round better be sure. AR-12 belongs in the 3rd round at best with a "down" season (for him). Ingram went off the board a bit earlier.
3(7) PICK: Carlos Hyde, RB, SF Re-Draft: Allen Hurns, WR, Jax
Hyde was a good idea, in theory, to take in the second or third round with Frank Gore gone to Indy, but he was a dud after the first week. Hurns was quite a sleeper pick, but earned his way into this spot by being productive. He'd be even a bit higher if he didn't have such volatility in production from one week to the next. He and teammate Allen Robinson have an absolute creampuff fantasy playoff schedule.
3(8) PICK: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Car Re-Draft: Brandin Cooks, WR, NO
Cooks slides 8 spots in the re-draft. With production all over the place, Cooks was a more difficult receiver to project from week to week, often doing more damage against better opponents and not so much against weaker ones. 4 FP vs Dallas and 25 FP vs. Carolina. Huh? His FFL playoff schedule is easy, so I'm not sure if that's a good thing for this guy, lol....
3(9) PICK: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pit Re-Draft: Demaryius Thomas, WR, Den
Thomas was picked too high going into the season, period. With Manning's age & questions about his arm strength already out there BEFORE the season started, I wasn't going to draft him at all but might have taken him at the end of the 4th round, when I drafted next, but was obviously long gone. Some owners pick QBs way early, and Big Ben should not have been drafted here under any circumstances. He's 20th among QBs in FP despite having the fastest group of WRs in the NFL overall.
3(10) PICK: Jimmy Graham, TE, Sea Re-Draft: Greg Olsen, TE, Car
Good idea - wrong guy! Graham wasn't properly used early in the season, when Seattle couldn't get going...then when Graham and the 'hawks "got going," Graham got hurt. Greg Olsen has been "going" all year long and while not a flashy player, "flash" means zero in fantasy. Stats do, and Greg is the most steadily productive TE in the game today...including even Gronk due to Gronk's nagging injuries. If you had Olsen in the lineup at TE (or FLEX if you're really hurting), you could put down a dozen FP on any given week - and in ink! TE Gary Barnidge, who is actually 2nd in FP among TEs, would be a 5th-rounder due to a murderous stretch run of defenses - Bengals, 49ers, Seahawks and Chiefs. Yee-ouch!
3(11) PICK: Russell Wilson, QB, Sea Re-Draft: Darren McFadden, RB, Dal
The Cowboys went from one extreme last year to the other this year - from one guy getting 390 touches to 3 or 4 guys getting sprinkled with them. Of those guys, RunDMC surprisingly wound up being the most productive one. I don't think anyone saw that one coming.
3(12) PICK: Alfred Morris, RB, Was Re-Draft: Frank Gore, RB, Ind
Morris lost touches as the season wore on and throughout the season, you never did know if he would get carries. Since his week-8 bye, his carries were 4, 15, 2, 23, 6, 11. His fantasy points were as yo-yo-like as his carries as he had six games with 2 FP or fewer! Gore had MUCH more steady production, just as he has his entire career. You could count on him for 9-15 FP each game, with very few contests with much fewer or many more points. Even with limited upside, he'd post something for you each and every week.
Round Four
4(1) PICK: Jordan Matthews, WR, Phi Re-Draft: Eli Manning, QB, NYG
Philly's offense never did turn out as planned (which I predicted here back in April), and Eli and Odell Beckham became the NFL's most dynamic battery. I'm glad Beckham's last name isn't Bush, thanks to Donald Trump's "low energy" label, but without a running game to speak of and with a porous defense, it means Eli takes to the air early and often. With OBJ around, why wouldn't you?
4(2) PICK: Greg Olsen, TE, Car Re-Draft: James Starks, RB, GB
Another precognitive pick, this one actually makes some sense even if drafting in August. Eddie Lacy was on my own "do not draft" list due to his very volatile injury history and ensuing fantasy production, and I didn't want to throw away a first-rounder for an uneven-playing RB on a passing team. That said, the 4th round is a great place to start looking for sleeper candidates, and James Starks would have been near the top of that "magic handcuff" list. He's more versatile than the overpowering Lacy and complements what they do on offense. Had you taken him, you would find he posted poor numbers only twice - week one when Lacy was still healthy (hahaha) and in week eight against Denver, when you would have seen a tough fantasy day coming.
4(3) PICK: Amari Cooper, WR, Oak Re-Draft: Amari Cooper, WR, Oak
During a re-draft, I try to keep the drafted player in the same spot if he's pretty close to on the money, and this is one of those cases. Technically, I'd drop him about 5-6 spots, but taking him here was a pretty darned good guess of his true fantasy value.
4(4) PICK: Justin Forsett, RB, Bal Re-Draft: Travis Benjamin, WR, Cle
Forsett looked like a nice value here, based on his production last season after taking over during the Ray Rice fiasco. An early injury torpedoed that plan, however, and this is a case of "the someone who...." Here, Benjamin is "the someone who" caught the ball at the WR position in Cleveland. Let this be a reminder for everyone next year when drafting: When you see ANY NFL team without a single soul having been drafted, take a shot at someone. You've got a decent chance of coming up with a productive gem, even if he wears an ugly uniform on a bad team.
4(5) PICK: Frank Gore, RB, Ind Re-Draft: Jeremy Maclin, WR, KC
Former Eagle Jeremy Maclin did something few WRs have been able to do, and that's be productive with Alex Smith taking the snaps. Sure, teammate Travis Kelce is an athletic and explosive TE, but Maclin is a speedster on the outside who can run after the catch. Smith figured it out this season, and Maclin is currently 18th in FP at WR.
4(6) PICK: Keenan Allen, WR, SD Re-Draft: Giovanni Bernard, RB, Cin
Runners are more rare than receivers, and with the Red Rifle's broken thumb, Bernard could see more work going into the deep end of fantasy playoffs, which lands him in the middle of the 4th round, ahead of more highly-touted teammate Jeremy Hill. Bernard could start on most NFL teams and may well be doing that in 2016, but for now he's an even more important part of Cincy's offense.
4(7) PICK: Melvin Gordon, RB, SD Re-Draft: Ronnie Hillman, RB, Den
Melvin "Flush" Gordon is the poster boy for why I hate drafting rookie RBs. You just never do know how they'll adjust to the complex NFL pass-protection schemes, for one, and well, they're rookies. When C.J. Anderson couldn't produce, the desperate Broncos turned to an old fumbler in Hillman. Ronnie has managed to greatly improve ball security this season, however, and the speedster can post FPs in bunches in that offense.
4(8) PICK: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Re-Draft: Michael Crabtree, WR, Oak
Manning's 4th-round draft position reflects the uncertainty around him this year, but this is no place to draft a guy like Peyton. Crabtree, playing opposite rookie phenom Amari Cooper, is the definition of a "possession" receiver to Cooper's deep threat. That offense in Oakland should be really scary next year, and in no small part to Crabtree's chains-moving ways.
4(9) PICK: Tony Romo, QB, Dal Re-Draft: Blake Bortles, QB, Jax
Since two consecutive QBs went here, I figured I'd "re-draft" the guy who belonged, and that would be 7th-rated QB Blake Bortles. Many saw him improving from a pretty bad rookie campaign, but not into the top-ten in fantasyland - no way. His young receivers in Robinson and Hurns helped him get here and are already off the board, themselves, in this re-draft.
4(10): PICK: Julian Edelman, WR, NE Re-Draft: Randall Cobb, WR, GB
Edelman would have been a great value here had he not gotten injured. Cobb's season has produced only a couple of monster fantasy games, but a number of decent ones. A soft playoff stretch-run helps, but with championship game week seeing Cobb face Arizona, the end of the 4th round is about as high as his production allows to draft him.
4(11) PICK: Vincent Jackson, WR, TB Re-Draft: John Brown, WR, Ari
Brown bracketed his bye week with a couple of goose eggs when he was injured, but otherwise has produced nicely. He's also on a nice uptrend the past month with 11.5, 11.5, 15, and 20 FP posted his last four games...just in time for the deep end of fantasy playoffs.
4(12) PICK: Golden Tate, WR, Det Re-Draft: Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Car
Despite all the "drop-sixes," Ginn has moved up the list of productive fantasy WRs and currently ranks 22nd overall. Throw in his 8 TDs and game-breaking speed, along with Carolina's turning him into a solid #1 fantasy WR, as well as Carolina's easy fantasy playoff schedule, and Ted Ginn, Jr. is now a must-start....just in time, too!
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