A rising tide lifts all boats, but the Nick Bosa deal broke the levy and let the waters flood. After a training camp holdout that threatened to leak into the season, the 49ers inked Bosa to a 5-year 170 million contract, where 122.5 million guaranteed. The deal averages 34 million annually, making Bosa the highest-paid defensive player in league history. Bosa’s blockbuster deal did what Brian Burns had been waiting for— reset the market.

Earlier this week, news leaked that Carolina had offered Burns a contract similar to the deal Max Crosby signed with the Raiders last season, somewhere in the range of 23 million a year. The average yearly salary is hardly the only determinant of a contract’s value. Crosby’s deal was for four years, 94 million total, with 53 million guaranteed. Crosby’s deal likely was the beginning negotiation point because both were drafted in 2019 and have performed statistically similarly. Crosby’s 36.5 sacks are comparable to Burns's 37 sacks.

The Athletic’s Joe Person reported that Burns’s camp was less than impressed with the figure. One would have to believe that this was only the starting point for negotiations because of some key differences between Burns’s and Crosby’s circumstances. Burns was drafted in the 1st round and subject to playing on a 5th-year team option, while Crosby was a 4th round pick who negotiated his deal last season. There’s a natural inflation that comes with a year, and contracts like Crosby’s and now Bosa’s only lend towards that natural appreciation.

It would be foolish to think that Burns would be satisfied with a deal like Crosby’s, but that figure is likely a starting negotiation. Other elements, such as guaranteed money and the contract's life, contribute to a contract’s real value. Bosa’s mega-deal made things a bit more complicated for the Panthers, well at the least a lot more expensive. A deal averaging around 27 million dollars annually doesn’t seem overly rich anymore.

Burns has been biding his time patiently waiting for this levy to break. Over the past week, he’s been putting more visible pressure on the Panthers, hoping to accelerate negotiations. Burns has been holding in by attending team meetings but sitting out of practice. It’s brought media attention to the situation but also raised the question: if the Panthers don’t pay up, will Burns force the issue by sitting out games?

The Panthers aren’t entirely out of options. Burns is under contract, and if he were to sit out, he would have to pay to do it. Sitting out certainly wouldn’t ingratiate himself to fans, as he has tried to do so throughout this process. Carolina could force the issue and make Burns play out his 5th-year option and hope to work a deal out either sometime during the season or in the offseason. If that didn’t pan out, Carolina could franchise tag Burns or seek to trade him to someone willing to pay up. The Panther may have missed the best opportunity last season when the Rams offered two first-round picks and a second-round pick for Burns.

Bosa’s deal has clear implications for Burns’s pending contract. It may accelerate the process and certainly inflates the price the Panthers will pay. We’ll all be waiting to see how the Panthers try to stop the Bosa flood, appease their defensive leader, and try to get ready for week one.

By Tony Dunn
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